Recommendation: BUY LOWER DOWN
Current Trend: Short and med-term, down. Long-term sideways.
Strategy: Buy a reversal up from line 1 (30k level) on BTC , or on ETH off line 4 (1730 level).
Chart Setup: Weekly charts of the above two instruments show bitcoin not that far from long-term support of line 1 ($30 000 level). It’s reversing off its low of the week this week so far, but is still vulnerable.
ETH (bottom chart) has crucial support at line 4 ($1720 level), this doesn't mean it ‘has to’ get there, but if it does it will be a low-risk buy.
Bitcoin’s weekly Stochastic (on top) is oversold with a bullish divergence, warning of a rally to come.
Strategy Details: Buy BTC on a reversal week (or reversal day for more aggressive traders) from line 1 ($30 000 level). Or, if it closes above line 3 that will also be buyable i.e. 42 200 for next week, falling by $1500 per week thereafter.
is buyable near line 4 ($1720) on a reversal week (or day) up. Or, a weekly close above $3000.
Target (NYSE: TGT ): So, while they can still drop to the support levels mentioned above, once new buy signal come in I'm looking for $55 000 on BTC (maybe further e.g. to line 2, at $66 500 level). For ETH, up to $4550 near its all time high.
A big concern here is if the price closes below line 1 on BTC, that will confirm a massive double to pointing to far lower levels e.g. $15 000. I don't think it will happen yet though.
Stop-loss: Depending on where the reversals occur, but off hand weekly closes below lines 1 or 4.
Conclusion: Monitor for med-term buy signals here, and ‘probably’ from lower levels.
Short-term: A few days to a few weeks e.g. 3-4 weeks
Med-term: About 2-5 months.
Long-term: About 10-18 months.
Reversal candlestick: Typically bullish when the price opens low, ideally makes a new low, but then reverses and rallies strongly into the close, to close near the day's high e.g. hammer, bullish engulfing pattern, piercing pattern. Vice versa for bearish signals e.g. shooting star, bearish engulfing pattern, dark cloud cover. Note, the larger the range of the reversal candle, the better.
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