JSE Remained Subdued on Friday as Rally Loses Momentum

Published 2024/05/20, 08:20

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) closed marginally higher on Friday, influenced by various global market movements, as investors digested the US Federal Reserve's recent statement on inflation and interest rates. Despite a muted inflation report released last week, the local bourse hit its highest level since February 2023, reaching 79 000 points, with the rand gaining to its highest levels since December during Friday's trading session. Nonetheless, hawkish commentary from Fed officials on Thursday, suggesting that the central bank should keep interest rates higher for an extended length of time until there's further evidence of a decline in inflation, moderating the market's upward momentum.

US stocks ended the week in mixed fashion, with all three major averages hovering near record highs. The Nasdaq concluded marginally lower on Friday, while the S&P 500 finished 0.10% higher, and the Dow Jones gained 135 points to close at a new record high of 40 033. Discussions in the market are still dominated by talk about interest rates and inflation, with investors keeping a careful eye on Fed officials' remarks and economic data for any shifts in rate forecasts. In corporate news, Trading Economic reported that: “Shares of Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) added 1% and 1.50%, respectively, pushing the Dow Higher. Reddit shares surged 10% after the company announced a content partnership with OpenAI. In contrast, Meme stocks declined for a third session, with GameStop (NYSE:GME) falling 19.70% and AMC (NYSE:AMC) dropping 5.20%.” For the week, the S&P 500 added 1.40% and the Nasdaq advanced 1.90%, both marking a fourth consecutive week of gains. The Dow booked its fifth positive week in a row, with a 0.90% gain for the period.

After reaching multi-decade highs earlier in the week, European stocks ended the day marginally lower on Friday as investors continued to evaluate the impact of impending rate cuts by the European Central Bank and recent corporate news. The STOXX 600 lost 0.10% to close at 523, while the STOXX 50 fell by 0.20% to close at 5 063. Officials noted that the central bank should exercise caution while reducing rates past June, dampening investor’s optimism over near-term interest rate cuts. Following a surge to all-time highs, profit-taking slammed the market on Friday, and Asian equities indices mostly declined, taking cues from a weak lead on Wall Street overnight as some profit-taking hit the market following a rally to record highs. Investors also responded to conflicting economic data from China. Retail sales and fixed asset investment increased less than predicted in April, but industrial production grew more than predicted.

Gold climbed above $2 400 per ounce on Friday, hitting a new record, boosted by heightened forecasts of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, strong central bank purchases, and safe-haven demand. Earlier indications of a decline in US consumer inflation and stalled retail sales have given the Fed more freedom to begin monetary easing. While policymakers have not publicly revised their stance, markets have already priced in initial rate cuts for 2024.

Brent crude futures rose above $84 a barrel on Friday, extending gains from the previous week after the US government said late last week that it had purchased 3.3 million barrels of oil for $79.38 per barrel to fill its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In other news, according to the most recent OPEC report, member countries exceeded their production cap by 568 000 barrels per day in April, but demand remains strong at 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.85 million barrels per day in 2025. Investors now look ahead to OPEC’s meeting on June 1 where the group will decide on output policy beyond the second quarter.

PSG Wealth Daily Investment Update, 20 May 2024

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