Local Consumer Confidence Plunged in 1Q25

The FTSE/JSE All Share Index rose 0.82% on Tuesday, despite a sharp decline in South Africa’s FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index, which plummeted to -20 in 1Q25—the lowest since 2Q23, down from -6 previously. This marked the second straight quarter of declining sentiment, driven by concerns over a proposed VAT hike, deteriorating US- SA relations, and fallout from US President Donald Trump’s trade war. The rand extended its gains, strengthening 1.28% to trade at R18.22/$ at 18h00 local time.

WTI crude oil futures slipped 0.10% to settle at $69 per barrel as investors weighed tightening global supply against ongoing economic uncertainty. Markets reacted cautiously to President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on US imports from countries buying Venezuelan oil, which could disrupt key refining operations in China, India, and Spain. Broader trade tensions and swift policy shifts also added to uncertainty.

The FTSE 100 pared early gains to close 0.30% higher, with traders balancing concerns over US trade tariffs against corporate earnings and economic data. Germany’s DAX climbed 1.10%, ending a four-day losing streak, supported by strong domestic indicators and hopes for a softer US tariff stance. Optimism grew after President Trump suggested potential exemptions for some trading partners in the coming month. Meanwhile, UK retail sales declined in March for the sixth consecutive month, according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry.

The Hang Seng dropped 2.40% to a nearly two-week low on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains as traders locked in profits ahead of quarter-end. Earnings results and Beijing’s stimulus measures had already been factored in. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.46%, approaching an eight-month high, supported by Wall Street’s gains and hopes that President Trump may adopt a more selective tariff approach. A weakening yen also boosted Japanese stocks by improving the outlook for exporters and making local assets more attractive to foreign investors.

US equities showed mixed performance in the afternoon session as investors assessed upcoming tariffs and economic uncertainty. The S&P 500 remained flat, the Dow Jones fell 54 points, and the Nasdaq edged up 0.10%. Monday’s rally, driven by expectations of more targeted tariff measures, lost momentum after Trump hinted that some countries might be exempt from reciprocal duties set for 2 April 2025. However, he also suggested new tariffs on pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Investor sentiment was further dampened by a steep drop in consumer confidence, which hit a four-year low, with future expectations plunging to their weakest level in 12 years.

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