Total mining production started the new quarter on a positive footing. Seasonally adjusted mining production is up 4.1% m/m in July, after contracting by 1.6% in June and by 3.6% in May. On an annual basis, unadjusted mining production is up 10.3% from 19.1% in June, reflecting waning base effects. There was a delay in releasing the June numbers ahead of the preliminary 2Q21 GDP print, but today’s figures show that seasonally adjusted mining production was up 0.6% q/q, reflecting that mining indeed contributed positively to GDP but there is downside risk to the 1.9% q/q currently estimated. Mining production is up 18.6% YTD compared to same period in 2020.
Explaining annual acceleration in mining production was a 42.9% y/y increase in iron ore production (contributing 3.9ppt), PGM production increased by 10.3% y/y (adding 2.3ppt), chromium ore production is up 45.8% y/y (adding 1.7ppt), and gold production posted 13.4% y/y (adding another 1.6ppt).
There were broad-based gains in mining production YTD, with only coal production 4.9% lower than production in the first seven months of 2020. Chromium production is up 53.5% YTD; building materials are up 39.1%; iron ore 38.0%; PGMs 32.0%; gold 18.6%; and other metallic minerals 15.4%.
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