🔥 Premium AI-powered Stock Picks from InvestingPro Now up to 50% OffCLAIM SALE

S&P 500: Bears to Get Their Next Chance Above 5400

Published 2024/06/10, 08:33
US500
-

We track the S&P 500 (SPX) using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP) primarily and view the current rally from the May 31 $5191 low as an impulse 5th wave targeting ideally $5427-53 contingent on holding above the colored dotted horizontal lines.

See Figure 1 below. These levels are warning levels for the Bulls. Blue is the Bulls’ 1st warning, grey the 2nd, etc., and if the index drops below them, it increases the odds that the upside target will not be reached. Hence, they can be used as stop (loss) levels.

Figure 1. Hourly SPX Chart with Detailed EWP Count and Technical IndicatorsSPX-Hourly Chart

The current rally first saw an initiation move, grey W-I to $5301, a classic 61.80% retrace of that rally to $5233 for the grey W-ii. The pattern should now be in the grey W-iii to ideally $5385-5411. Moreover, the grey W-iii is subdividing into smaller waves (the orange and blue waves).

We expect the low to hold, and therefore, we can allow for the orange W-3, 4 to fill in over the next few days. Assuming we are correct, then we expect the index to enter a larger correction (~10%) once the green W-5 completes. However, we are cognizant of the possibility that the Bulls may have one more trick up their sleeves. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Daily SPX Chart with Detailed EWP Count and Technical IndicatorsSPX Daily Chart

Namely, the rally from the April 19 $4953 low, could see one more W-4, 5 sequence. Instead of a ~10% correction from the ideal $5427-53 target zone, we could only be treated with a single-digit pullback to around $5260+/-15 for the potential green W-4, followed by a last green W-5 to ~$5550+/-25. It will require a drop below last week’s low from the ideal $5427-53 target zone to strongly suggest a deeper correction is underway.

Thus, at this stage, we prefer to look higher, ideally to $5400+, from where a potentially larger correction can occur. However, it will require at least a drop below last week’s low to tell us that will be the case. Hence, there’s no need to front-run anything until that thesis is confirmed.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.