As US equity markets digest corporate earnings, the trade war narrative, inflation, the outlook for monetary policy, and the disruption threat of more cost-effective Chinese AI (DeepSeek), major indices have now moved into a consolidation phase.
Dow Jones (Wall Street): The Blue-Chip Safe Haven
Comprised of 30 blue-chip companies, the Dow Jones represents stability and established industry leaders. It appeals to investors seeking a more conservative approach, providing a haven amidst market uncertainty.
Currently, the index, while not far off all-time high territory currently trades within a short to medium-term consolidation between levels 41700 and 45100. The long-term trend for the index remains up and as such trend followers might prefer to keep a long bias to trade on the index for the time being.
Long entry might be considered on a bullish price reversal closer to one of the labeled levels of support on the chart above, or on a close above resistance at 45100. Overhead trendline resistance at 46630 provides a longer-term upside target for the index. Only on a break (close) below the major low at 41700 would our long-only bias to trades on the index be reconsidered.
Nasdaq (US Tech): High-Growth, High-Risk
The Nasdaq, known for its heavy concentration in technology and growth stocks, presents a more volatile but potentially higher-reward scenario. While attractive to investors seeking dynamic growth, the Nasdaq faces challenges. Concerns about inflated valuations and potential competition from emerging AI players like DeepSeek AI, a Chinese startup whose advanced AI models are disrupting the market, have cast a shadow over the tech-heavy index.
The index also trades near all-time high territory although is currently in a short to medium-term consolidation between levels 20755 and 22135. The long-term trend for the index remains up and as such trend followers might prefer to keep a long bias to trades on the index for the time being.
Long entry might be considered on a bullish price reversal closer to one of the labeled levels of support on the chart above, or on a close above resistance at 22135. Overhead trendline resistance at 23230 provides a longer-term upside target for the index. Only on a break (close) below the 200-day simple moving average (blue line) would our long-only bias to trades on the index be reconsidered.