ING Economic and Financial Analysis

As we had expected, the BoJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% and announced the JGB purchases would be halved by 1Q26. The growth outlook was trimmed modestly for FY24 while the inflation outlook...

Eurozone data continues to challenge the European Central Bank, with German economic contraction and sticky CPI complicating matters. Meanwhile, the Germany 10-Year-United States 10-Year spread has...

Crude oil traded higher this morning on rising geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. A constructive API report also further helped to lift sentiment in the oil market Energy – Oil risk Premium...

With favorable economic data providing officials with greater confidence that US inflation is moving steadily along the right path, we think that Wednesday’s FOMC meeting should offer a clearer hint...

The big question for FX markets is whether July’s sharp correction is over. We think events tomorrow (Bank of Japan and Fed meetings) will have a big say. Before then, US JOLTS and consumer...

Brent broke below $80/bbl for the first time since early June as demand concerns linger Energy – Brent Tumbles Below $80/bbl Oil prices have come under further pressure as bearish sentiment has hit...

Oil prices have come under pressure due to lingering demand concerns, while the copper market has weakened further on the back of rising inventories Energy – Russian Crude Transit Issues Oil prices...

Oil prices continue to trade in a range. Chinese demand concerns continue to cap prices, while Canadian supply risks have reinforced the floor for the market Energy – Canada Wildfire Risk Grows The...

We could see pressure building for additional monetary tightening in some APAC economies in the coming week. Meanwhile, North Asia (ex-China) delivers the monthly activity data dump which should show...

Oil is down, and so is copper after hitting record highs in May. Natural gas prices, however, continue to be supported by supply concerns. Oil market in deficit for the remainder of 2024 Oil prices...

A surprise 0.2% MoM core CPI inflation print after a similar reading for April core PCE deflator offers good news for the Fed in its fight to ease price pressures. This needs to become the trend...

US inflation came in at 0.4% MoM for the third consecutive month, more than double the rate we need to consistently hit to bring inflation down to 2% YoY. Expectations for a June Federal Reserve...

Interest rate cut expectations have receded everywhere following the US inflation data, but there are subtle dovish incremental shifts within the BoC’s commentary that suggest should inflation...

By Benjamin SchroederRates are still looking to go higher near term. While supply has helped over the past few days, rates remain sensitive to the data. So far, pushing back the expectations for the...

The RBNZ changed its tone only moderately, keeping the threat of another hike on. However, NZD fell and AUD also declined after lower-than-expected CPI. We think Australia and New Zealand have...

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...