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South Africa Top 40 Futures - Jun 2024

Currency in ZAR

S. Africa 40 Futures Discussions

Apologies meant weak ZAR against GBP
Must be weak GBP and the miners listed on the FTSE 100.
When the rand weakened the markets shot up, now rand strengthened the market still moves higher all thanks to Naspers, no telling when this rally will eventually end. Sliced through most resistance points like butter
I've been looking at it and it appears to me the overall correlation between the Jse and the Rand is a lot lower than one might think. Jse is more correlated to other equities over the longer term. It's simply bubbling up along with the Hang Seng etc.
Simply mind-boggling
Adding more cash to my short, not convinced this rally is sustainable on one overbought and overvalued stock (Naspers)
Who knows. This is the greatest stock market bubble in history which means it can keep going. The correction will likely rival the Great Depressions drawdown
If you can find a strategy to survive and push your will to the extreme it's a life changing trade setting up. I've been at it for 2 years and have been killed. Doesn't matter though because the drawdown will be so deep and so fast any losses will be quickly erased
Trouble is the longer a short loses one money, and stop losses trigger to avoid margin calls, the more difficult it becomes to guess the top and short there to recoup some of the loss.
SA Cash 40 up over 400 points pre-market, is this all Tencent or some other reason?
It's going to open above that today for sure. I like to look at the bolinger bands with settings of 50 and 3 on the monthly. Outside of that now too which is an indication of extreme euphoria
Tencent dropped a bit from its 52 week high, but reluctant to call a top on this beast. Will pension funds start cashing in on Naspers or is it still trading at a discount to Tencent, even with a P/E over 150, most brokers still has a Buy rating on it, madness.
Problem with a bubble is nobody cashes out until it's too late. They're so desperate for returns they'll hold on until it's too late. Pension funds and insurance companies shouldn't be holding onto such risky assets but rules get relaxed to accommodate what is needed in the short at the expense of the long term
Naspers gains almost vertical in past week, taking huge loss on margin calls, when will this end?
One trader just bought 1000 NPN at R4070, who are these people, do they really expect more gains? Do they know something we don't? I hope not!
Pension funds etc. setting up to crumble
Up over 10% in a week, makes no sense, the graph is vertical
Tencent soars again. Bubble risk increasing now. Exhaustion gaps evidencing the FOMO
The over investment by the pension funds and insurance companies does not bode well for the future. The JSEs overall diversification is extremely poor and is now so fragile that it's hard to imagine anything surviving the impending correction. Future here in SA is going to be very tough, even harder than it's been by some distance. Once again the greed of those with capital will ultimately crush those without.
Second attempt at 54 210. Wild and blind euphoria now gripping the Jse via Naspers
Clear distribution here. Let's we how much more this market has. Extreme price moves would suggest it's ready for mean reversion. An extreme mean reversion at that.
It's all lined up now. I think December might just surprise the Santa Rally expectations.
Next major resistance level here is 54 100 on cash. Going to take some mighty global moves to move the Jse through it. You know what failure there means too. Completion of a major bull run that lasts back further than most care to remember or possibly can.
NIce on spotting that resistance line, smacked it and gobbled back down
Bulls need to take that badly. It creates a technical nightmare if not.
As a relatively ignorant newbie I inadvertently shorted Dec 17 ALSI at R51,637 on October 5! Should I sit it out? Please ... I welcome all input.
Trust me we all end up paying school fees and what makes it worse is that the markets have been very volatile. Sideways movements that we experiencing this last week requires that we bank profits as soon as possible. If you still have the position then I would suggest you keep a stop loss that you would determine is appropriate. I myself am no expert but a mere scholar learning everyday
I appreciate your input. Mere scholar or not ;)
 Hi Bernice, hope you had a stop on that short position
The fall is imminent, however it might be very gradual, or a fast decline, shorts have been squeezed tremendously, i would patiently wait for certain indicators before shorting this monster of a bull. It has surprised many including myself.
Instruments that have high volume such as indices and commodities. Includes currency indices such as the US dollar index
Be sure to start looking at waves using the monthly before digging into lower timeframes. I think that's a big mistake that users of wave theory make
The Bears are here.. and the crows, and the undertaker!! Hehehe
I also see the fall coming but when? way overvalued
Way overvalued.I see it falling to 46000 support. Will first come back to 48000
It will short till 45.190
Long way to go?
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