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Jason Muscat

FNB
  • Opinion & Analysis

Jason Muscat's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Jason Muscat's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

December retail trade sales far exceeded our expectations, rising 5.3% y/y, but down -2.6% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis. General dealers, clothing and “other retailers each added 1.4 pps ...
The 4Q17 unemployment rate fell to 26.7% from 27.7% in the third quarter, while the expanded definition of unemployment, which includes unemployed individuals that have given up searching for ...
Having slumped from -5 in the first quarter of 2017 to -9 during the second quarter, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) remained low at -8 index points in the fourth quarter of 2017. (The ...
December headline inflation came in at 4.7% y/y from November’s 4.6%, slightly softer than our forecast of 4.9%. Core inflation fell to 4.2% y/y in December from 4.4% the previous month, while ...
November retail trade sales surpassed even our bullish expectations, registering 8.2% y/y from an upwardly revised 3.5% in October. This was the strongest year-on-year performance in five years. Sales...
In line with our expectations, October retail trade sales softened to 3.2% y/y from September’s upwardly revised 5.7%. We ascribe the slower growth rate to consumers having deferred some ...
November consumer price inflation came in slightly below our expectations at 4.6% y/y and 0.1% m/m. While services inflation remains sticky at 5.5% y/y, goods inflation fell from 4.1% in October to ...
October manufacturing production increased 2.2% y/y from the –1.7% contraction in September, admittedly off a weak base. The primary drivers behind the recovery were a 7.3% jump in food and ...
As anticipated, mining production bounced back in October, expanding by 5.2% y/y and ensuring a positive start to fourth quarter output. On a seasonally adjusted basis, production was up 3.4% m/m, ...
3Q17 GDP expanded by a robust 2% q/q, ahead of consensus forecasts, but below our bullish call. 2Q17 GDP was upwardly revised to 2.8% q/q from 2.5%. Growth was almost entirely driven by the ...