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Jason Muscat

FNB
  • Opinion & Analysis

Jason Muscat's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Jason Muscat's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Contrary to our expectations of a modest narrowing of the current account deficit, the 2Q17 SARB Quarterly Bulletin (QB) showed a widening to -2.4% of GDP from -2% in the first quarter. The deficit on...
July retail trade sales registered the fifth consecutive positive reading for 2017, expanding 1.8% y/y (unadjusted) from an upwardly revised 3.2% in June. In fact, all of the second quarter numbers ...
June retail trade sales expanded 2.9% y/y (unadjusted), the strongest figure posted since November 2016. General dealer sales, which accelerated to 2.5% y/y, added 1.1 pps while a 12.4 % y/y increase ...
South Africa officially entered recession in 1Q17 with a –0.7% q/q contraction, significantly worse than our already bearish expectations of 0% growth. The weakness was incredibly broad-based, ...
March retail trade sales expanded 0.8% y/y, the first positive print for the year. It was, however, not enough to drag the sector into positive territory for the quarter, and we expect retail sector ...
South Africa’s inflation trajectory continues to moderate with March CPI printing at 6.1% y/y, down from 6.3% in February. The month-on-month increase was 0.6% (from 1.1% in the prior month). ...
Mining volumes jumped 4.6% y/y in February, from 1.4% in January. Production was up 2.9% month-on-month but remains negative on a quarterly basis. Despite gold output falling -16.8% y/y, and coal down...
Manufacturing production dropped precipitously in February, declining -3.6% y/y (the worst print since July 2014 which was strike related) and -0.4% m/m. This was in sharp contrast to January’s ...
MPC Rates Decision
By Jason Muscat - Mar 30, 2017
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 7% as was widely expected. The decision was not unanimous, however, with 1 committee ...
2016 GDP By Sector
By Jason Muscat - Mar 07, 2017
2016 GDP printed slightly below our 0.4% expectation, registering 0.3%. Growth in 4Q16 contracted –0.3% q/q saa, slightly less than we had anticipated. It was again the primary sector ...