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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Opinion & Analysis

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

In President Trump’s first week in office, he issued a blitz of executive orders, but perhaps his most ambitious statement to date is his claim yesterday that he would order the Federal Reserve to...
Is this the calm before the storm? Or has the danger passed? The bond market is focused on news and data in the days and weeks ahead that will provide context for answering these key questions....
Is this the year of commodities? It’s a plausible narrative, based on the early days of trading in 2025 for a set of ETFs that track the major asset classes through Tuesday’s close (Jan. 21)....
On his first day as president, Donald Trump announced bold plans to reshape economic policy. His ideas for revising US priorities are as brash and audacious as they are controversial and contested in...
Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States at 12 noon Eastern. When he takes the oath office for a second time at least one thing will be clear: He will enter the White...
The market premium for the US 10-year Treasury yield eased in December after rising for two straight months. The analysis uses a “fair value” estimate. Despite the downshift, the market continues to...
US Economy on Track to Post 2%+ GDP Growth in Q4
By James Picerno - Jan 14, 2025
The US economy is still expected to post a slower growth rate in the upcoming fourth-quarter GDP report. But in a sign of confidence that a respectable expansion persists, the projected rate of...
The US economy added more jobs than expected in December, providing a fresh dose of optimism that the labor market will remain strong for the near term. There’s lots of uncertainty ahead as Trump 2.0...
5 Charts to Monitor Reflation Risk in the US
By James Picerno - Jan 12, 2025
Inflation is relatively low compared with the post-pandemic surge, when the year-over-year change for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.0% in June 2022. The current 2.7% pace through this...
Inflation risk is topical again, as I’ve been discussing this week. As a result, the bond market is demanding a higher yield premium to compensate for the possibility that inflation will be higher...