Barclays bullish on Chevron stock, citing transition and cash flow

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Barclays bullish on Chevron stock, citing transition and cash flow

On Wednesday, Barclays (LON: BARC ) began coverage of Chevron (NYSE: CVX ) stock, assigning the stock an Overweight rating and a price target of $203.00. The firm highlighted Chevron's transition to developments characterized by lower capital intensity, lower execution risk, and more flexible short-cycle production as a positive change following a decade of challenging mega-project developments.

The analysis by Barclays emphasized Chevron's potential for significant cash returns, which are among the highest in their coverage universe. The anticipated free cash flow inflection from the commencement of the TCO expansion project was noted as a key factor. Additionally, Chevron's high return legacy position in the Permian Basin was mentioned as a supportive element of the company's financial profile.

Barclays also addressed the potential acquisition of Hess Corporation (NYSE: HES ) by Chevron. They pointed out that even without the deal, Chevron's free cash flow yield would likely increase by approximately 90 basis points. Moreover, the firm suggested that Chevron could continue to rely on its assets in the Gulf of Mexico and the Eastern Mediterranean for long-term growth.

The price target of $203 set by Barclays is based on a targeted multiple of 7x the estimated 2025 earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and exploration costs (EBITDX) for Chevron's upstream operations and 6x for its downstream segment. This valuation reflects the firm's confidence in Chevron's future performance and its strategic positioning within the energy sector.

InvestingPro Insights

Barclays' positive outlook on Chevron is echoed by several key metrics and insights from InvestingPro. With a robust market capitalization of $300.88 billion and a P/E ratio that stands at a reasonable 13.21 for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023, Chevron showcases the stability that investors may find attractive. Notably, Chevron's dividend yield as of early 2023 is 4.04%, underlining the company's commitment to rewarding shareholders, a point further emphasized by its track record of raising dividends for 36 consecutive years.

Chevron's performance in the stock market has remained relatively steady with the stock trading near its 52-week high, reflecting investor confidence. This is complemented by a low price volatility, as indicated by InvestingPro Tips, which makes Chevron an appealing option for investors seeking stability in the often turbulent energy sector. Moreover, Chevron's cash flows have been more than sufficient to cover interest payments, suggesting financial resilience. For those interested in deeper analysis, InvestingPro offers several additional tips, including Chevron's moderate level of debt and its status as a prominent player in the Oil , Gas & Consumable Fuels industry.

For readers looking to leverage these insights, InvestingPro provides a comprehensive platform with additional tips. To enhance your investment research experience, use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription. With InvestingPro, you can also stay informed about Chevron's next earnings date on April 26, 2024, and explore the fair value estimates which currently stand at $199.81, suggesting potential upside from the current price level.

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