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IEA cuts 2024 crude demand growth forecast, sees 2029 peak

Published 2024/06/12, 14:18
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The International Energy Agency cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2024 on Wednesday, putting its views further at odds with the projections of OPEC.

The IEA trimmed its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 960,000 bpd, in its monthly report, citing sluggish consumption in developed countries.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries had retained a relatively bullish outlook in its monthly report, released on Tuesday, continuing to expect world oil demand to rise by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd for 2025.

“Subpar growth of 1 million bpd in 2025 is held back by a muted economy and accelerating clean energy technology deployment,” the IEA said, in its monthly report 

As for supply, the IEA noted that the group of major producers, OPEC+, has laid out a roadmap for unwinding extra voluntary supply reductions of up to 2.2 million bpd from the fourth quarter of 2024 through the third quarter of 2025. 

“On that basis, global oil supply looks set to rise by 690 kb/d on average this year, led by a 1.4 mb/d increase from non-OPEC+ countries. Next year could see gains of 1.8 mb/d in total, with non-OPEC+ up 1.5 mb/d and OPEC+ 320 kb/d higher,” the IEA said.

“With oil demand expected to remain weak, supplies may have to be adjusted lower next year, rather than higher.”

In a separate document, reported by Reuters, the IEA forecast global oil demand peaking by 2029 and beginning to contract the following year, as the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries add to supply.

This view also contrasts with the thoughts of OPEC, which sees demand rising long after 2029 in part due to a slower shift to cleaner fuels.


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