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Special market? Asia’s willingness to pay is boosting gold – Julius Baer

Published 2024/05/28, 22:08
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Investing.com – Gold continues to shine. Surpassing records in May, gold remains a highlight in the commodities market, with demand dominated by Asia. In the last three months, gold futures for June delivery have risen around $300, moving from the $2,052 mark to the current $2,360. On Tuesday, futures were up 1.10% at $2,360 per ounce, while spot gold gained 0.32% at $2,357.

"The gold market is special. Although global demand has barely grown over the last decade, prices have doubled. The explanation for this is that, instead of total demand growth, it is the shift between segments and regions, plus the willingness to pay, that is driving the price," notes the Swiss group Julius Baer.

Julius Baer, which sees rising risks for the metal, states that Asia's willingness to pay more for gold is motivated by not only economic but also geopolitical factors. There is no gold rush, but demand in China remains strong, with the People's Bank responsible for at least 30% to 50% of all purchases by monetary authorities in the last two years.

The reason, according to Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research at Julius Baer, is related to the desire to reduce dependence on the US dollar and, in extreme cases, potential sanctions.

"The Chinese central bank shows signs of price sensitivity, but its willingness to pay has increased as gold prices rise," he adds.

In addition to gold, Julius Baer has a constructive view on silver, both recently revised from a cautious perspective.

For gold, the three and twelve-month price forecasts are $2,450 and $2,550 per ounce, respectively. Meanwhile, the estimated price for silver is $31 and $33, respectively.

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