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Mizuho maintains Outperform rating on Diamondback Energy stock

Published 2024/10/09, 22:46
FANG
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On Wednesday, Mizuho Securities sustained its optimistic stance on Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), maintaining an Outperform rating and a $219.00 price target for the company's shares. The firm's assessment comes with expectations for Diamondback Energy to deliver a quarter that aligns with previous guidance, despite potential market concerns such as stale consensus on production and capital expenditure figures, as well as pricing weaknesses.

Diamondback Energy, having completed the Endeavor acquisition in September, successfully managed its first secondary offering from the sellers, an event that was previously seen as a short-term obstacle. Mizuho anticipates that the management will reaffirm the combined company's outlook that was initially announced in February.

The forecast includes production of approximately 800-825 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d), with about 58% being oil, and a spending range of $4.1 billion to $4.4 billion, now adjusted to include the recent Tumbleweed acquisition. However, a formal budget might only be presented in February due to the current macroeconomic volatility.

The focus for Diamondback Energy is expected to shift towards realizing additional synergies beyond the targeted $550 million following the acquisition's closure. Another key point of interest is the company's strategy for reducing its debt relative to its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Mizuho Securities USA estimates that by the end of 2024, the net debt to EBITDA ratio could be approximately 1.6 times.

The firm has reiterated its Outperform rating and $219 per share net asset value (NAV) based price target, while also continuing to classify Diamondback Energy as a Top Pick in the sector. This endorsement reflects Mizuho's confidence in the company's strategic acquisitions and its ability to integrate these assets to create value for shareholders amidst a volatile macroeconomic environment.

In other recent news, Diamondback Energy has seen significant developments. The company recently completed the acquisition of Endeavor, solidifying its dominant position in the Midland Basin. This move prompted BMO Capital Markets to upgrade Diamondback Energy's rating from Market Perform to Outperform and raise its price target to $215.

Similarly, TD Cowen reiterated its Buy rating on Diamondback Energy shares, reflecting the firm's confidence in the company's operational adjustments and the integration of Endeavor's assets. Barclays (LON:BARC) upgraded Diamondback Energy from Equalweight to Overweight after the company's third-quarter production volumes exceeded forecasts. JPMorgan also initiated coverage on Diamondback Energy with an Overweight rating and a new price target of $182, up from the previous target of $167.

Diamondback Energy revised its Q3 2024 production and capital expenditure guidance, now projecting to produce between 319,000 to 321,000 barrels of oil per day, with capital expenditure ranging from $675 million to $700 million. This updated guidance reflects the impact of the Endeavor merger on Diamondback's operations. The company also initiated a secondary public offering of 11.27 million shares and a share repurchase of 2 million shares.

Finally, Diamondback's subsidiary, Viper Energy (NASDAQ:VNOM), acquired Tumbleweed Royalty assets for $650 million, further solidifying its presence in the Permian Basin. These recent developments highlight Diamondback Energy's ongoing efforts to enhance its operational efficiencies and financial position.

InvestingPro Insights

To complement Mizuho Securities' optimistic outlook on Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. As of the last twelve months ending Q2 2024, Diamondback Energy reported a robust revenue of $8.85 billion, with an impressive 11.34% revenue growth. This growth aligns with Mizuho's expectations for the company to meet its guidance.

The company's financial health appears strong, with an adjusted P/E ratio of 16.8, suggesting a reasonable valuation considering its growth prospects. Diamondback's ability to generate cash is evident from its high operating income margin of 55.05%, which supports Mizuho's positive stance on the company's potential for realizing synergies and reducing debt.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that Diamondback Energy has maintained dividend payments for 7 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 5.58%. This consistent dividend policy could be attractive to income-focused investors, especially given the company's strong financial position.

For those considering a deeper dive into Diamondback Energy's prospects, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips, providing a more comprehensive analysis of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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