’Fasten your seatbelts’— BTIG strategists warn of coming turbulence
Investing.com -- Tui (ETR:TUI1n) shares fell more than 10% on Wednesday after the travel agency company reported softer-than-expected revenue and weaker summer bookings, despite a better-than-forecast second-quarter profit.
Group revenue for the quarter came in at €3.70 billion, missing the €3.80 billion consensus.
Underlying EBIT was a loss of €206.8 million, better than the expected loss of €224 million. The net loss of €262.8 million was narrower than the €309 million forecast. Net debt stood at €3 billion.
First-half revenue totaled €8.6 billion, up 7.8% year over year but below Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) and Bloomberg consensus of €8.7 billion.
Adjusted EBIT loss for the period was €156 million, beating Deutsche Bank estimates by €27 million.
Adjusted for Easter timing, the beat widened to €59 million. Holiday Experiences posted EBIT of €369 million, up 29% year over year, while other segments remained loss-making.
TUI (LON:TUIT) maintained full-year 2025 guidance, expecting sales growth of 5% to 10% and underlying EBIT growth of 7% to 10%.
Net interest is guided at a loss of €355 million to €385 million, an improvement from earlier estimates.
Capital expenditure is expected at €670 million to €730 million, up from prior guidance. The group also confirmed dividend returns from TUI Cruises of more than €170 million.
Summer 2025 bookings softened. The programme is 57% sold, up from 32%, but total bookings declined 1% to 8.6 million, compared with a 2% increase previously.
U.K. bookings were flat, improving from a 2% drop, while Germany fell 3%, down from a 6% rise. Average selling prices remain up 4%.
Winter bookings rose 2%, with prices also up 4%. Operational KPIs showed moderation; hotel ADRs rose 8%, cruise ADRs 2%, both down from earlier levels, while occupancy gains flattened across segments.
Jefferies expects a 9% consensus earnings uplift but flagged reinvestment risk across business units. Deutsche Bank maintained a “buy” rating and €11 price target, citing improved financial strength and valuation.