Etsy Q3 Beat Possible but BofA Cautious on Q4 Guidance By Investing.com

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Etsy Q3 Beat Possible but BofA Cautious on Q4 Guidance

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By Sam Boughedda

BofA's price target on Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) shares was cut to $110 from $120 by BofA analysts on Tuesday.

The analysts, who maintained a Neutral rating on the stock, said the firm sees a third-quarter beat as possible, but they are more focused on fourth-quarter trends.

"Etsy will report 3Q22 earnings on 11/2 after market close. We are roughly in-line with Street expectations for 3Q22; we forecast GMS (gross merchandise sales)/revenues/EBTIDA of $2,920mn/$563mn/$147mn vs. the Street's $2,934mn/$562mn/$147mn. We think a beat is possible given a pickup in trends for Etsy's largest categories per BAC aggregated card data* and strengthening web traffic data. However we are more cautious on 4Q," wrote the analysts.

They explained that the firm is more cautious about Q4 guidance due to lower-than-expected Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) 4Q retail revenue guidance, several promotional events by large retailers early in the quarter that could pull consumer demand forward, and Etsy is lapping a large revenue beat driven by supply chain issues for competitors that won't repeat this year along.

"We lower our 4Q GMS/revenues/EBTIDA to $3,781/718/$198mn (from $3,865/734/$205mn) vs. the Street’s $3,902mn/$742mn/$202mn but maintain our 2023 estimates which are 5/3% below for GMS and revenues," they confirmed.

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