Dollar pulls back as Walmart sales outlook casts doubt on U.S. consumer health

Published 2025/02/20, 06:14
Updated 2025/02/20, 17:50
© Reuters

Investing.com – The U.S dollar pulled back on Thursday, as traders parsed through a softer-than-anticipated sales forecast from big-box retail giant Walmart (NYSE:WMT) that cast some doubt over the strength of the American consumer.

By 10:40 ET (15:40 GMT), the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of its currency peers, had dipped by 0.5% to 106.64.

The euro strengthened against the dollar by 0.5% to $1.0469, while sterling rose 0.4% to $1.2637.

Analysts have widely viewed Walmart, the ubiquitous chain that offers everything from retail goods to groceries, as a possible bellwether for the state of the U.S. consumer during the early months of 2025.

Recent economic data has shown a decline in monthly retail sales, while a consumer sentiment survey for February unexpectedly declined. The figures, along with a hotter-than-expected inflation reading for January, suggested that shoppers may be wary of the effect U.S. President Donald Trump’s policy moves -- particularly plans to roll out sweeping tariffs -- could be having on their purchasing power.

Arkansas-based Walmart said it expects annual consolidated net sales to increase in the range of 3% to 4%, versus analyst projections of a 4% uptick, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The guidance accounts for a headwind from a lapping leap year in 2024, Walmart said.

For the current quarter, the firm also sees adjusted per-share income at $0.57 to $0.58, short of Wall Street estimates, with Walmart flagging negative currency effects. Sales are tipped to expand by 3% to 4% during the period.

Also factoring sentiment was Trump’s suggestion this week that he could impose tariffs on automobile, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical imports of around 25%, although some analysts have argued that the constant drumbeat of trade threats from the White House may be part of a wider negotiating tactic.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its January 28–29 meeting, revealing some wariness among officials at the central bank toward future potential interest rate cuts due to possible inflationary pressures arising from Trump’s trade and immigration policies. 

In Asia, the Japanese yen appreciated 0.6% against the U.S. dollar, with the USD/JPY pair trading at 150.52 yen, after a former Bank of Japan official said it may hike interest rates in May should the domestic political environment worsen or there are effects from Trump’s tariffs. 

The Chinese yuan’s onshore pair USD/CNY was largely unchanged, as investors were unmoved by Trump’s claim late on Wednesday that a trade deal with China could be struck.

(Ayushman Ojha contributed reporting.)

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