Moderna shares surge on cancer vaccine data

© Reuters.

By Sam Boughedda

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) and Merck (NYSE:MRK) shares rose Tuesday morning after the companies said mRNA-4157/V940, an investigational mRNA cancer vaccine, in combination with KEYTRUDA, met the primary efficacy endpoint in Phase 2b trials.

They said mRNA-4157/V940, in combination with KEYTRUDA, demonstrated a "statistically significant and clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of disease recurrence or death compared to KEYTRUDA monotherapy in stage III/IV melanoma patients.

In addition, it reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 44%.

Reacting to the news, Brookline Capital Markets analysts said: "The timing of these phase II results for the personalized cancer vaccine, mRNA-4157, are as expected, and are highly positive, demonstrating with statistical significance that the combination of mRNA-4157 and Keytruda reduced the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 44% versus Keytruda alone. Importantly, this is the first therapy to demonstrate a better outcome in melanoma than a PD-1 inhibitor alone." The analysts maintained a Buy rating and a $506 price target on the stock.

"We view this data as promising for the PCV program, albeit acknowledge melanoma is highly immunogenic and thus is a more straightforward first target, and translates to platform value outside of the respiratory vaccine (e.g. COVID) vertical," said Goldman Sachs analysts. "MRNA intends to evaluate additional tumor types (Keytruda has worked well in larger indications such as non-small cell lung cancer and renal cell carcinoma), where success, in our view, would further de-risk the PCV program."

Morgan Stanley analysts told investors in a note: "We had previously outlined scenarios in our CDI (here) and today's data is the best-case scenario. Adjuvant melanoma is an ~$2B+ market, but given the robustness of today's result, we expect investors to consider the potential impact of PCV across a wide range of tumors including lung cancer. Mgt. plans to start a Ph3 study in 2023. We expect MRNA up 10%+."

At the time of writing, Merck shares are up 1%, while Moderna has surged 21%.