Rapid7 tops earnings estimates but revenue guidance weighs on share price

© Reuters.

By Sam Boughedda

Rapid7 Inc (NASDAQ:RPD) shares are down about 7% Thursday in reaction to the company's latest earnings release, which saw it top profit and revenue expectations.

While the company beat on most metrics, Rapid7's revenue forecast has weighed its share price.

The software firm's Q4 EPS came in at $0.35, $0.17 better than the analyst estimate of $0.18, while revenue for the quarter came in at $184.48 million versus the consensus estimate of $179.46M.

As of December 31, the company said annualized recurring revenue (ARR) was $714M, an increase of 19% year-over-year, while it reported total ARR per customer growth of 12% year-over-year.

Looking ahead, the company sees Q1 2023 EPS between $0.07 and $0.10, versus the consensus of $0.07, with revenue for the period expected to be below analyst consensus estimates between $180M and $182M, versus the $185.7M expected.

For the full year 2023, earnings are seen from $0.81 to $0.88 per share, versus the consensus of $0.49, with revenue seen between $771M and $778M, below the consensus of $789.82M.

Following the report, Canaccord Genuity analysts downgraded Rapid7 from Buy to Hold with a price target of $52 per share.

Meanwhile, Raymond James analysts maintained an Outperform rating on the stock, raising the price target to $55 from $50, telling investors that the company's "strong 4Q results and continued traction with expanding ARR/customer are overshadowed by an additional cut to 2023 ARR guidance with pressure to land new logos."

"While we anticipated a back half loaded 2023 for Rapid7, expectations of net new ARR to decline in 2023 was lower than our flat y/y bogey. Uncharacteristically, quarterly guidance was provided for 1Q ARR (2% q/q ARR increase), which raises the stakes for the sales efficiency improvements to take hold in the 2H. Nonetheless, we see the 2023 ARR target achievable as Rapid7 focuses on expanding ARR/customer by selling more of the platform versus hunting new logos in a challenging environment," they wrote.