November was a breathtaking month for stocks, with the S&P 500 surging 9% led by Information Technology. It was the fourth-best monthly gain on the S&P going back to 1950. Given the huge surge, there are worries that December's usual gains will be taken away from. The Stock Trader's Almanac ran the numbers and said this is usually not the case.
The Almanac looked at the top three Novembers (1962, 1980 and 2020) and found that December also saw gains in 2 out of the 3 cases, with 1980 being the lone down case.
Meanwhile, also going back to 1950, stocks were up the month of December 74% of the time.
"The top 10 and top 20 Novembers were followed by up December 70% of the time, though average gains are a little above average for the top ten at 1.8%," the Almanac states. "So, all in all, big November gains take very little if anything away from historically strong Decembers. In short, gains beget gains."
The Almanac also said it is hard to understand all the bearishness on the Street as it is seasonally the most bullish time of the year.
"And seasonality remains on track and firing on all pistons as does the 4-Year Cycle," they added. "Market internals and technicals continue to be supportive. Those that may remember the 1990s will recall that the market can flourish, driven by innovation and technology – can you say AI? – even when interest rates are at current levels or even higher. The bond market continues to signal a declining trend in rates with the 10-year and 30-year bond yields retreating off the recent highs."
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