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Investing.com -- Macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics expects the S&P 500 to move higher in the near term, but maintains a cautious stance on the index’s trajectory in the long run.
Barring any surprises from tariffs or corporate earnings, there is little to stand in the way of further near-term gains, the firm said in a recent note, while pointing out last week’s enactment of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” as a positive catalyst.
“We think the bill will give the U.S. economy a big boost,” the note said. It added that, despite concerns over public finances, the bill prevents a fiscal drag by extending tax cuts and lifting the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Combined with potential tariff revenues, the fiscal outlook is expected to remain manageable in the short run.
“Treasuries, and equities for that matter, no longer run the risk of being spooked by a showdown over the debt ceiling, given the bill’s provision to raise it by $5trn,” Capital Economics wrote.
It also noted that the recent rise in long-term Treasury yields may not pose a major headwind for equities, unless it leads to a significant compression in the equity risk premium.
Although that premium is low by historical standards, it “is still much higher than the level it reached before the dotcom bubble burst.” Capital Economics believes that renewed AI enthusiasm could compress the premium further and support equity prices.
The outlook for U.S. corporate earnings will also be important. Despite some mixed macroeconomic data, analysts have not meaningfully revised down earnings estimates since May.
Capital Economics is holding off on raising its end-2025 S&P 500 target of 6,250, citing potential risks from tariffs and the upcoming earnings season.
Even so, the firm still expects the index to reach 7,000 by the end of 2026. However, it remains more cautious on the longer-term outlook, as it continues “to think that enthusiasm for AI will wane at some point.”