Investing.com -- Loop Capital said investors should avoid transportation stocks amid escalating trade tensions, warning that tariffs will immediately hurt demand and extend the ongoing "freight recession."
In a note to clients, Loop Capital downgraded several major transportation companies, including Canadian Pacific (NYSE:CP) KC from Buy to Sell, Canadian National from Hold to Sell, and Union Pacific (NYSE:UNP) from Hold to Sell.
The firm also lowered FedEx (NYSE:FDX), CSX (NASDAQ:CSX), Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC), and GXO Logistics from Buy to Hold, stating, "We’ve eliminated all positive ratings in the transportation sector and recommend our clients don’t add to positions until the dust settles."
The firm highlighted that tariffs are "immediately inflationary," with companies like Walmart (NYSE:WMT), Home Depot (NYSE:HD), and Ford (NYSE:F) expected to pass increased costs to consumers.
"With duties scheduled to go into effect at midnight on Tuesday, that means U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will start assessing and charging import duties at 12:01 AM as every plane lands, ship docks, and truck and train arrives."
This inflationary impact, Loop argues, will reduce sales and weaken transportation demand further.
The note also warns that the tariffs could push Canada and Mexico into recession, given that the U.S. accounts for 75% and 80% of their exports, respectively.
"All of the transportation companies we cover will be hurt by a simultaneous economic contraction north and south of the border, further exacerbating weakness in cross-border flows."
Loop criticized the trade policy, calling it "an economic attack on our neighbors" and questioning the logic of targeting Canada, a country it describes as "friendly, stable, reasonable, and reliable."
It also cautioned that destabilizing Mexico could backfire, stating, "It’s not in America’s interest to risk having a failed state on its doorstep."
While tariffs may eventually yield economic benefits, Loop emphasized that "the pain is up front and immediate," making transport stocks unattractive in the near term.