EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks bounce, no respite for Turkish lira

  • Reuters
  • Stock Market News
EMERGING MARKETS-Emerging stocks bounce, no respite for Turkish lira
Credit: © Reuters.

By Claire Milhench

LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira suffered another fall on Thursday, more than wiping out the gains made in the wake of Wednesday's emergency rate hike, while wider emerging markets booked cautious gains thanks to a lacklustre dollar and retreating U.S. Treasury yields.

Turkey's central bank cranked up its top interest rate by 300 basis points (bps) to 16.5 percent on Wednesday evening, in an attempt to put a floor under the plunging currency and calm investors unnerved by repeated interventions from President Tayyip Erdogan. 2 percent stronger on Wednesday, the lira TRY= initially firmed in early trading but subsequently fell more than 2 percent as investors fretted over Erdogan's latest comments that Turkey would take "different measures" to tackle its double-digit inflation and current account deficit after next month's elections.

Wednesday's hike was widely seen as policy makers having done the necessary minimum, though more was needed to move ahead of the curve. But analysts said the initial signs were not encouraging after the central bank removed a reference in its statement to the willingness to tighten further.

"That kind of says 'here is 300 bps as you wanted, and we are done', and that was some kind of compromise with Erdogan," Tim Ash, a strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, wrote in a note to clients.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) also said the size of the hike only compensated for the additional inflation that would feed through from the lira's depreciation since the last rate-setting meeting on April 25.

There was also disappointment that the bank did not carry out the promised simplification of its interest rate regime.

However, the hike did seem to help stabilise other beaten down Turkish assets. Sovereign dollar bonds rose by as much as 3.3 cents across the curve with the biggest gains at the long end.

Turkish five-year credit default swaps fell to a one-week low and local 10-year benchmark bond yields fell to 14.01 percent. Stocks .XU100 rose 1.5 percent.

Emerging currencies elsewhere struggled for direction, despite U.S. bond yields retreating following seemingly dovish minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the dollar index .DXY falling by 0.3 percent. South African rand ZAR=D3 strengthened 0.3 percent with investors expecting the central bank to strike a hawkish tone at a rate-setting meeting later in the day, though analysts expected the bank would keep rates on hold at 6.5 percent.

However, data out on Wednesday showed local consumer price inflation jumped in April. Russia's rouble RUB= and Mexico's peso MXN= booked slight losses.

Across equity markets, MSCI's benchmark emerging stocks index .MSCIEF rose 0.5 percent, helped by a strong open in emerging Europe following losses in the previous session.

Polish stocks .WIG20 rebounded 1.3 percent, Hungary .BUX 1 percent and Russia .IRTS 0.8 percent.

This followed a more mixed performance in Asian markets, where Chinese mainland stocks .CSI300 fell 0.7 percent to two-week lows and South Korea shares fell 0.2 percent .KS11 after the U.S. launched a probe into auto part imports.

Investors fear this may lead to new tariffs similar to those imposed on imported steel and aluminium. China and South Korea said they would monitor the situation.

U.S. President Donald Trump also called for a different structure in any trade deal with China, fuelling uncertainty over the negotiations. Indonesian assets continued to recover after a recent sell-off, with stocks .JKSE up 2.6 percent and the rupiah IDR= up 0.3 percent after the new central bank governor confirmed the bank's commitment to stabilizing the currency. emerging Europe, the Czech crown EURCZK= and Hungarian forint EURHUF= slipped 0.2 percent against the euro, with the latter trading near 23-month lows hit in the previous session.

On Wednesday the Czech central bank governor said they might raise interest rates faster if the crown strengthened more slowly than the central bank expects. Polish zloty EURPLN= outperformed its peers, firming 0.2 percent to trade near 4-1/2 month highs after a rate setter was quoted saying the balance in the central bank was shifting towards the hawks.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2018, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2018, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS )

Emrg Mkt Indx .MSCIEF 1139.14

+6.04 +0.53 -1.67

Czech Rep

.PX

1111.19 +11.65 +1.06 +3.06

Poland

.WIG20

2229.81 +20.49 +0.93 -9.40

Hungary

.BUX

35809.86 +353.34 +1.00 -9.06

Romania

.BETI

8301.89 -43.76 -0.52 +7.07

Greece

.ATG

792.85

+7.92 +1.01 -1.19

Russia

.IRTS

1184.55

+9.84 +0.84 +2.61

South Africa

.JTOPI 50790.20 +190.25 +0.38 -3.32

Turkey

.XU100 03488.82 +1597.13 +1.57 -10.27

China

.SSEC

3154.89 -14.07 -0.44 -4.60

India

.BSESN 34589.79 +244.88 +0.71 +1.56

Currencies

Latest

Prev

Local

Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2018

Czech Rep

EURCZK=

25.81

25.77 -0.18

-1.11

Poland

EURPLN=

4.29

4.30 +0.24

-2.70

Hungary

EURHUF= 318.80

318.26 -0.17

-2.59

Romania

EURRON=

4.62

4.62 +0.11

+1.24

Serbia

EURRSD= 118.12

118.02 -0.08

+0.24

Russia

RUB=

61.42

61.26 -0.26

-6.12

Kazakhstan

KZT=

325.96

326.26 +0.09

+2.10

Ukraine

UAH=

26.11

26.08 -0.11

+7.81

South Africa ZAR=

12.42

12.45 +0.22

-0.49

Kenya

KES=

100.95

100.85 -0.10

+2.13

Israel

ILS=

3.57

3.57 -0.03

-2.57

Turkey

TRY=

4.68

4.57 -2.19 -18.98

China

CNY=

6.38

6.39 +0.10

+1.96

India

INR=

68.32

68.36 +0.06

-6.57

Brazil

BRL=

3.63

3.63 +0.01

-8.69

Mexico

MXN=

19.59

19.63 +0.19

+0.29

Debt

Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov'gn Debt 11EML EMBIG 345

-4

.29 7 74.87 1

All data taken from Reuters at 08:43 GMT.

Currency percent change calculated from the daily U.S.

close at 2130 GMT.

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Turkish lira and bonds react to emergency rate hike

https://reut.rs/2LrTezR

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