EMERGING MARKETS-North Korea stance lifts emerging stocks, lira lays low

  • Reuters
  • Stock Market News
EMERGING MARKETS-North Korea stance lifts emerging stocks, lira lays low
Credit: © Reuters.

(There will be no London-based emerging markets report on Monday, May 28 due to a UK public holiday)

By Claire Milhench

LONDON, May 25 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks rose on Friday as North Korea's conciliatory tone helped sentiment recover after U.S. President Donald Trump called off a key summit, but Turkey's lira laid low following its worst week since 2009.

MSCI's benchmark emerging equities index .MSCIEF rose 0.3 percent, but was set to end the week up just 0.2 percent after new protectionist threats from the United States and an about-turn from Trump on North Korea knocked sentiment. with North Korea saying it was open to resolving the stand-off over its nuclear weapons programme and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields in retreat US10YT=RR , risk appetite returned for some emerging market assets.

The Indian rupee INR= rebounded 0.8 percent from a near 16-month low and stocks .NSEI rose 1 percent after coming under pressure in recent days due to higher oil prices. A fall in crude futures to below $78 a barrel LCOc1 has provided some respite for the big energy importer.

Turkey's lira TRY= also made tentative gains against the dollar in early trade but then retreated 0.3 percent after a volatile week in which Turkey's central bank was forced to raise its top interest rate by 300 basis points to 16.5 percent to put a floor under the freefalling currency.

The sustained sell-off was driven by investor concerns about the central bank's ability to tame double-digit inflation. President Tayyip Erdogan is fiercely opposed to high interest rates and has vowed to assert more policy control after the June 24 parliamentary and presidential elections. Chamorro, an emerging market debt portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management, said big rate hikes were "pretty powerful policy tools", and if they were big enough they usually worked.

"The problem is if it is not big enough you have to come back to the market. We saw that in Argentina, which did it in stages," he said. "In the case of Turkey, the jury is still out. The next couple of days are going to be quite crucial."

Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek acknowledged that the central bank had been late raising rates but added it would do whatever was necessary and had the full support of the government. lira is still set to end the week down over 5 percent, its fourth losing week in a row and its worst week since 2009. For the month to date the lira is already down over 16 percent, its worst performance since October 2008, after hitting successive record lows.

However, the average yield spread of Turkish sovereign dollar-denominated bonds over U.S. Treasuries on the JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM ) EMBI Global have narrowed from a peak of 420 basis points (bps) on Monday to 390 bps, an 11-day low.

Turkish stocks .XU100 rose 1.5 percent and were set to end the week flat.

Other emerging currencies retreated, hindered by a firmer dollar, which rose 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies. .DXY

The South African rand also fell 0.5 percent after the central bank held rates at 6.5 percent as expected on Thursday, while saying it saw upside risks to consumer inflation. Ashbourne, Africa economist at Capital Economics, warned the next move was more likely to be a cut than a hike.

"We think that inflation will remain within target next year, and that policymakers will be keen to provide a bit more support to the economy, which we expect will be slowing," he said in a note.

Investors are also awaiting ratings reviews on the country's debt by S&P Global and Fitch, expected after the market close.

S&P Global cut South Africa's local currency debt rating to "junk" status in November and said in March that it would be nowhere near upgrading until reforms under new President Cyril Ramaphosa took shape. yuan CNY= dipped 0.2 percent to hover around four-month lows and Chinese mainland stocks fell 0.4 percent .SSEC . Both the Shanghai Composite and the blue chip CSI300 index .CSI300 were set for their worst weeks since late April, down 1.6 percent and 2.2 percent respectively.

Chinese assets have been hit by the U.S. decision to call off the June summit with North Korea, and concerns about a U.S. investigation into car and truck imports.

The worry is this will lead to new U.S. tariffs similar to those imposed on imported steel and aluminium in March. The move has drawn strong criticism in the United States and abroad. emerging Europe, Hungary's forint EURHUF= continued its slide against the euro, down 0.2 percent to hit a fresh 23-month low. The Hungarian central bank is seen as one of the most dovish in emerging markets.

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance 2018, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2e7eoml For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance 2018, see http://tmsnrt.rs/2dZbdP5

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB ) Emerging Markets Prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Net Chg % Chg % Chg

on year

Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS )

Emrg Mkt Indx .MSCIEF 1138.24

+3.18 +0.28 -1.74

Czech Rep

.PX

1100.66

-2.76 -0.25 +2.09

Poland

.WIG20

2213.62

+0.36 +0.02 -10.06

Hungary

.BUX

36078.47 +185.85 +0.52 -8.38

Romania

.BETI

8298.70 +34.26 +0.41 +7.03

Greece

.ATG

771.59

+0.70 +0.09 -3.84

Russia

.IRTS

1183.00

+9.37 +0.80 +2.47

South Africa

.JTOPI 50430.21 +84.71 +0.17 -4.00

Turkey

.XU100 02792.30 +1654.22 +1.64 -10.87

China

.SSEC

3142.17 -12.48 -0.40 -4.99

India

.BSESN 34973.64 +310.53 +0.90 +2.69

Currencies

Latest

Prev

Local

Local

close currency currency

% change % change

in 2018

Czech Rep

EURCZK=

25.81

25.78 -0.12

-1.09

Poland

EURPLN=

4.30

4.31 +0.13

-2.96

Hungary

EURHUF= 319.54

319.04 -0.16

-2.82

Romania

EURRON=

4.63

4.63 -0.03

+1.08

Serbia

EURRSD= 118.11

118.09 -0.02

+0.25

Russia

RUB=

61.58

61.56 -0.02

-6.36

Kazakhstan

KZT=

327.81

325.96 -0.56

+1.52

Ukraine

UAH=

26.14

26.11 -0.11

+7.67

South Africa ZAR=

12.48

12.42 -0.52

-0.98

Kenya

KES=

101.05

101.00 -0.05

+2.03

Israel

ILS=

3.56

3.56 +0.02

-2.37

Turkey

TRY=

4.72

4.71 -0.36 -19.78

China

CNY=

6.39

6.38 -0.17

+1.88

India

INR=

67.79

68.33 +0.80

-5.84

Brazil

BRL=

3.65

3.65 +0.00

-9.24

Mexico

MXN=

19.54

19.56 +0.10

+0.54

Debt

Index Strip Spd Chg %Rtn Index

Sov'gn Debt 11EML EMBIG 347

0

.05 7 75.99 1

<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ Turkey's lira and interest rates

https://reut.rs/2GNxhbe

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

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