End of U.S. exceptionalism drives ‘bull crash’ in investor sentiment: BofA

Published 2025/03/18, 10:42
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Investor sentiment has taken a sharp negative turn as the era of U.S. exceptionalism appears to be fading, according to Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey (FMS).

The bank’s latest FMS report shows a record rotation out of U.S. equities, with allocations dropping 40 percentage points from the prior month, leaving investors net 23% underweight U.S. stocks. This marks the lowest allocation since June 2023.

"Stagflation, trade war, end of U.S. exceptionalism drive “bull crash” in FMS sentiment, speed of which consistent with “end of equity correction"," BofA strategists led by Michael Hartnett said in the report. 

But while the downturn in U.S. equities and broader risk sentiment is significant, the strategists stress that “no one is long recession/bonds” and investor positioning “is nowhere near extreme bear/close-your-eyes-and-buy levels.”

Meanwhile, cash levels rose sharply as global growth expectations deteriorated, reflecting mounting concerns about economic conditions.

The survey recorded the biggest jump in cash holdings since March 2020, rising from 3.5% to 4.1%. This move effectively ended a BofA “sell signal” that had been in place since December 17.

The shift comes as global growth expectations collapsed to -44% in March from -2% in February, marking the second-largest monthly drop in sentiment in over three decades.

“FMS conviction on global growth historically correlated to S&P 500 price action…pessimism on global growth outlook is bad news for stocks,” the strategists noted.

Stagflation fears remain a dominant theme among investors, with 71% of respondents expecting below-trend growth and above-trend inflation over the next 12 months.

The survey also showed a sharp decline in overall equity exposure, which fell to a net 6% overweight—its biggest monthly drop since July 2022. Bond allocations remain net 13% underweight, indicating that investors have yet to fully rotate into fixed income despite rising cash levels.

Regional allocations underline the extent of the shift. While investors reduced U.S. exposure, they increased their allocations to the eurozone, emerging markets, and the UK.

Fund managers are now net 39% overweight eurozone equities, the highest level since July 2021, while UK stock allocations rose to their highest level since June 2021.

Sector positioning also saw significant changes, with managers increasing exposure to staples, insurance, and telecom while cutting allocations to tech, energy, and consumer discretionary stocks.

The most crowded trade remains long the Magnificent 7, cited by 40% of investors, though this is down from a peak of 71% in July 2024.

Other popular trades include long European stocks (23%) and long crypto (9%).

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.