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Morgan Stanley sees Sensex compounding 12% to 15% annually over next BJP term

Published 2024/06/07, 06:20
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Investing.com-- Morgan Stanley analysts expect a rally in Indian stocks to continue over the coming years, especially as the 2024 general election results showed the BJP-led NDA was set for a third term in power.

While the NDA did get a smaller majority, MS said its retention of a majority still presented a predictable outlook for policy, and flagged improvements in India’s macro stability and overall economic conditions.

To this end, the brokerage forecast a 12% to 15% annual growth rate for the BSE Sensex 30 over the next five years. 

“The election outcome is likely to usher in more structural reforms and reinforces our forecast of 20% annual earnings growth over the next five years. We believe this is set to be India's longest and strongest bull market ever,” MS analysts wrote in a note. 

India’s Nifty 50 and the Sensex had plummeted from record highs earlier this week, after the results of the general election showed the NDA winning a much smaller majority than expected, while the Congress-led INDI alliance gained ground. This raised some concerns that the NDA will face more opposition in enacting sweeping policy changes.

But the NDA is still expected to form a government for a third consecutive term, with incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi to remain in his role. 

Indian stocks largely rebounded over the past two days tracking this notion, coming back within sight of peaks seen at the beginning of the week. 

Investors had largely welcomed the business-friendly policies enacted by Modi over the past 10 years, with India’s economic growth blazing past its global peers as the government invested in infrastructure development and improved manufacturing capabilities. 

MS said this trend is likely to continue in the next five years, while more economic reforms enacted by the BJP set to increase India’s economic stability

The brokerage said it was overweight on financials, technology, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors, and underweight on others. MS also said it preferred cyclicals over defensives and large caps over small caps. 

Still, MS flagged some risks for Indian stocks from laggard bureaucracy and infrastructure, the potential impact of artificial intelligence on India’s technology sector, climate change and sluggish reforms. 

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