Investing.com -- UBS analysts said they expect “a strong set of results” from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and guidance that aligns or surpasses market expectations for total revenue and data center performance.
The investment bank projects Nvidia’s revenue guidance for the fiscal first quarter to meet or surpass the investor benchmarks of approximately $42.5-43 billion for total revenue and about $38.5-39 billion for the data center segment.
The analysts highlighted that Nvidia recognizes revenue from its Blackwell compute boards upon shipment, rather than waiting for the complete racks to be shipped from OEM/ODM partners.
“Ergo, we believe the supply chain is successfully navigating a short-term mismatch between Blackwell compute board shipments (ramping now) and OEM/ODM Blackwell GB200 rack shipments,” analysts led by Timothy Arcuri wrote in a note.
With the marked increase in Blackwell compute board production in the second half of Nvidia’s fourth fiscal quarter, many customers have likely shifted to more readily available Blackwell SKUs, such as the B200 on the air-cooled HGX platform.
This pivot is due to customers’ eagerness to install Blackwell technology even one or two months earlier, UBS notes, rather than waiting for GB200 rack power issues to be fully resolved.
The analysts project Blackwell revenue for the fiscal Q4 at around $9 billion, a figure that they believe would more than double in the first fiscal quarter to over $20 billion, equivalent to around 700,000 units.
Furthermore, they expect Nvidia to continue shipping compute boards ahead of a surge in GB200 rack shipments to end customers from Nvidia’s OEM/ODM partners starting in March.
“We also believe that in some cases where customers want to wait for racks, Blackwell inventory at OEMs/ODMs is being partially financed by end hyperscale customers,” analysts added.
Looking ahead, UBS foresees a “very strong” Blackwell ramp through the calendar year 2025 and maintains its high-on-Street revenue and EPS estimates of approximately $234 billion and $5.33 respectively, with EPS potentially rising to $6.25 or more in the calendar year 2026.
The bank maintained its Buy rating and the $185 price target on Nvidia stock.