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This indicator suggests the S&P 500 could hit 5800 by end of 2024

Published 2024/05/26, 20:16
© Reuters.
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The S&P 500 is up more than 11% year-to-date with major brokerage firms on Wall Street raising their price targets in recent days.

Historical data suggests that when the S&P 500 experiences a 10% or more increase over the first 100 days of the year, it tends to continue rising.

The average return for the remainder of such years is 7.1%, with a median of 9.3%, according to Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) analysis.

"This equates to SPX 5640 to 5750 into yearend 2024. The average and median rest of year returns for all years going back to 1928 of 5.0% and 7.3%, respectively, point to SPX 5530 to 5650 into yearend," the report said.

The S&P 500's performance in the first 100 days of 2024 is particularly important as it occurs during a Presidential election year, which typically sees more modest gains.

Historically, the index is up 63% of the time during such periods, with an average return of -0.9% and a median return of 0.8%.

The 10.4% YTD gain for 2024 ranks as the second-best start in an election year since 1928, which saw a 12.5% increase.

Further strengthening the positive outlook, when the S&P 500 has risen in the first 100 days of a Presidential election year, the rest of the year has followed suit 93% of the time. The average return for these periods is an impressive 10.1%, with a median return of 8.9%.

In terms of the S&P 500, this could translate to a year-end target of 5800 and 5730, respectively.

Overall, historical patterns for all election years show the index up 88% of the time, with average and median returns of 8.8% and 8.5%, indicating a potential range of 5730 to 5700 for the S&P 500 by the close of 2024.

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