TSMC considering stake in Intel factories: Here’s what analysts think

Published 2025/02/18, 07:10
© Reuters

Investing.com-- TSMC (NYSE:TSM) is considering taking a stake in beleaguered rival Intel’s U.S. factories at the request of the Trump administration, several reports showed last week, amid a continued focus on boosting U.S. chip production.

Such a deal could add to TSMC’s plans for U.S. expansion, given that the company already has a foundry in Arizona, which it plans to expand in the coming years.

Reports from the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg showed that TSMC was receptive to such a deal, although talks over the matter were still in early stages. Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) may also be in the running for Intel (NASDAQ:INTC)'s factories, the reports showed.

But Reuters reported that President Donald Trump may be averse towards letting a foreign entity control U.S. chip factories. 

Reports of the discussions come as Intel grapples with steadily declining market share and a cash-hemorrhaging foundry business. 

US expansion to be driven by demand, shareholder needs over Intel rescue- MS 

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts said that while the government may be pushing for TSMC to support Intel, its final decision on foundry expansion in the U.S. was likely to be driven by considerations for demand and shareholder value, rather than to aid Intel. 

Still, MS analysts noted that further U.S. expansion is possible. TSMC is likely to pass on any import tariffs under Trump to customers, and as such, will seek more U.S. production to reduce U.S. tariff risks. But it was unclear whether these plans will involve Intel. 

The company is the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, and is a key supplier for AI major Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). 

TSMC-Intel JV ‘unlikely’- JPMorgan 

JPMorgan analysts said that a joint venture between TSMC and Intel appeared unlikely, and was only feasible with substantial financial subsidies. They also noted reluctance in the White House to allow such a deal. 

But they said that further expansion of TSMC’s U.S. foundries remained a base outcome, given that the company already has plans to expand its Arizona facilities.

JPM believes that TSMC will likely further expand its production capacity in the U.S. beyond its current plans for Arizona, and that it could cost the company in over $100 billion in capital expenditures over the next 5-10 years. 

JPM said that much of TSMC’s U.S. expansion would depend on continued support from the CHIPS act, which has been a major driver of the company’s Arizona expansion.

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