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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 0.6x - 0.7x | 0.6x |
Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 0.4x - 0.5x | 0.5x |
Fair Value | €0.63 - €0.65 | €0.64 |
Upside | 1.8% - 4.1% | 2.9% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
---|---|---|
COSCO SHIPPING Ports Limited | 1199 | SEHK:1199 |
Tianjin Port Development Holdings Limited | 3382 | SEHK:3382 |
Shenzhen International Holdings Limited | 152 | SEHK:152 |
China Merchants Port Holdings Company Limited | 144 | SEHK:144 |
Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure Limited | 1052 | SEHK:1052 |
COSCO SHIPPING International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd. | CSB | DB:CSB |
Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
1199 | 3382 | 152 | 144 | 1052 | CSB | |||
SEHK:1199 | SEHK:3382 | SEHK:152 | SEHK:144 | SEHK:1052 | DB:CSB | |||
Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
5Y CAGR | 7.9% | -1.9% | -1.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 2.1% | ||
3Y CAGR | 7.5% | -7.6% | -5.7% | 0.0% | 8.3% | -7.2% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 6.4% | 1.8% | -24.1% | 3.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | ||
Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 16.5% | 11.0% | 26.3% | 30.9% | 41.8% | 4.8% | ||
Prior Fiscal Year | 18.5% | 12.6% | 30.6% | 32.6% | 40.4% | 4.0% | ||
Latest Fiscal Year | 15.6% | 13.6% | 33.3% | 34.1% | 31.6% | 6.4% | ||
Latest Twelve Months | 16.1% | 13.6% | 33.3% | 34.1% | 31.6% | 6.4% | ||
Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 1.39x | 1.06x | 3.90x | 1.37x | 4.54x | 0.52x | ||
EV / LTM EBIT | 8.6x | 7.8x | 11.7x | 4.0x | 14.4x | 8.1x | ||
Price / LTM Sales | 1.83x | 0.33x | 1.25x | 5.66x | 1.19x | 2.34x | ||
Low | Mid | High | ||||||
Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 1.06x | 1.39x | 4.54x | |||||
Historical EV / LTM Revenue | -0.90x | -0.61x | 0.52x | |||||
Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 0.60x | 0.64x | 0.67x | |||||
(x) LTM Revenue | 3,627 | 3,627 | 3,627 | |||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,192 | 2,307 | 2,423 | |||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | 6,596 | 6,596 | 6,596 | |||||
(=) Equity Value | 8,788 | 8,904 | 9,019 | |||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 1,466.0 | 1,466.0 | 1,466.0 | |||||
Implied Value Range | 5.99 | 6.07 | 6.15 | |||||
FX Rate: HKD/EUR | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | Market Price | ||||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.62 | ||||
Upside / (Downside) | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | 1199 | 3382 | 152 | 144 | 1052 | CSB | |
Enterprise Value | 2,200 | 14,578 | 60,702 | 16,181 | 22,943 | 1,693 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 1,158 | 6,869 | 11,428 | 11,410 | 1,978 | 5,938 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 4,746 | 5,329 | 30,750 | 90,041 | 2,012 | 1,011 | |
(-) Debt | (4,151) | (5,318) | (61,380) | (34,548) | (17,487) | (16) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (1,115) | (16,901) | (22,023) | (16,084) | (3,558) | (337) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 2,839 | 4,557 | 19,477 | 67,000 | 5,888 | 8,289 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 3,874.2 | 6,158.0 | 2,443.7 | 4,198.0 | 1,673.2 | 1,466.0 | |
Implied Stock Price | 0.73 | 0.74 | 7.97 | 15.96 | 3.52 | 5.65 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 9.12 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 5.74 | 0.74 | 7.97 | 15.96 | 3.84 | 0.62 | |
Trading Currency | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | HKD | EUR | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 0.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 9.12 |