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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | -23.4x - -25.9x | -24.6x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 19.0x - 21.0x | 20.0x |
| Fair Value | €0.36 - €0.50 | €0.43 |
| Upside | -33.0% - -6.5% | -19.8% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited | IVL | SET:IVL |
| The Siam Cement Public Company Limited | SCC | SET:SCC |
| Formosa Chemicals & Fibre Corporation | 1326 | TWSE:1326 |
| TPI Polene Public Company Limited | TPIPL | SET:TPIPL |
| BASF SE | BFFA.F | OTCPK:BFFA.F |
| PTT Global Chemical Public Company Limited | GCB | DB:GCB |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| IVL | SCC | 1326 | TPIPL | BFFA.F | GCB | ||
| SET:IVL | SET:SCC | TWSE:1326 | SET:TPIPL | OTCPK:BFFA.F | DB:GCB | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 9.4% | -34.6% | NM- | 2.2% | -5.1% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -24.4% | -59.1% | NM- | -19.7% | -27.3% | NM- | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.7% | 149.6% | -107.3% | -11.7% | 0.9% | -181.1% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 4.9% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 16.9% | 6.2% | 2.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 1.8% | 2.3% | -0.9% | 14.4% | 4.1% | 1.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.2% | 0.7% | -0.4% | 13.1% | 4.4% | -0.7% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 2.6% | 0.4% | -0.5% | 14.3% | 4.2% | -1.6% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.70x | 0.86x | 0.35x | 2.72x | 0.87x | 0.46x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.0x | 14.9x | 8.8x | 12.2x | 9.3x | 20.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 27.4x | 235.7x | -64.3x | 19.0x | 20.9x | -27.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | -64.3x | 20.9x | 235.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -35.5x | 14.8x | 121.9x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | -23.4x | -24.6x | -25.9x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | (9,551) | (9,551) | (9,551) | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 223,578 | 235,345 | 247,112 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (169,377) | (169,377) | (169,377) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 54,201 | 65,968 | 77,735 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 4,508.8 | 4,508.8 | 4,508.8 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 12.02 | 14.63 | 17.24 | ||||
| FX Rate: THB/EUR | 37.6 | 37.6 | 37.6 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.46 | 0.54 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -40.8% | -27.9% | -15.1% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | IVL | SCC | 1326 | TPIPL | BFFA.F | GCB | |
| Enterprise Value | 368,643 | 439,677 | 119,094 | 98,612 | 56,983 | 260,925 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 20,212 | 42,747 | 76,377 | 5,306 | 2,374 | 37,071 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 4,205 | 156,529 | 165,475 | 1,217 | 6,390 | 54,988 | |
| (-) Debt | (260,329) | (333,623) | (162,003) | (77,645) | (24,491) | (254,682) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (13,140) | (65,330) | (32,832) | (10,637) | (1,266) | (6,755) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 119,590 | 240,000 | 166,112 | 16,852 | 39,990 | 91,548 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 5,614.6 | 1,200.0 | 5,849.0 | 18,935.2 | 892.5 | 4,508.8 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 21.30 | 200.00 | 28.40 | 0.89 | 44.81 | 20.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 37.60 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 21.30 | 200.00 | 28.40 | 0.89 | 51.89 | 0.54 | |
| Trading Currency | THB | THB | TWD | THB | USD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.86 | 37.60 | |