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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 9.4x - 10.3x | 9.8x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 7.1x - 7.8x | 7.4x |
| Fair Value | €3.30 - €3.92 | €3.61 |
| Upside | -27.0% - -13.2% | -20.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Idemitsu Kosan Co.,Ltd. | 5019 | TSE:5019 |
| Indian Oil Corporation Limited | 530965 | BSE:530965 |
| Shell plc | SHELL | ENXTAM:SHELL |
| TotalEnergies SE | TTFN.F | OTCPK:TTFN.F |
| China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation | 386 | SEHK:386 |
| ENEOS Holdings, Inc. | JHJ | DB:JHJ |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| 5019 | 530965 | SHELL | TTFN.F | 386 | JHJ | ||
| TSE:5019 | BSE:530965 | ENXTAM:SHELL | OTCPK:TTFN.F | SEHK:386 | DB:JHJ | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 12.6% | 7.3% | 9.1% | -3.6% | NM- | |
| 3Y CAGR | -28.0% | -19.6% | 10.5% | 2.1% | -14.2% | -27.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -53.2% | -68.5% | -10.5% | -27.1% | -21.3% | -34.6% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 3.3% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.0% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 14.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 1.8% | 2.5% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 1.8% | 2.5% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.20x | 0.37x | 0.83x | 0.70x | 0.30x | 0.27x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.7x | 7.8x | 4.7x | 3.7x | 5.6x | 5.3x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.1x | 14.6x | 7.6x | 5.9x | 14.9x | 12.6x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 5.9x | 11.1x | 14.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | -29.0x | 10.9x | 12.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 9.4x | 9.8x | 10.3x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 262,567 | 262,567 | 262,567 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 2,456,351 | 2,585,633 | 2,714,915 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,207,231) | (1,207,231) | (1,207,231) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,249,120 | 1,378,402 | 1,507,684 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 2,690.4 | 2,690.4 | 2,690.4 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 464.29 | 512.35 | 560.40 | ||||
| FX Rate: JPY/EUR | 170.8 | 170.8 | 170.8 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 2.72 | 3.00 | 3.28 | 4.52 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -39.9% | -33.6% | -27.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 5019 | 530965 | SHELL | TTFN.F | 386 | JHJ | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,801,112 | 2,809,455 | 230,795 | 130,615 | 977,582 | 3,284,531 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 165,762 | 136,739 | 32,682 | 25,607 | 159,426 | 846,563 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 424,686 | 568,496 | 25,681 | 41,524 | 249,966 | 992,136 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,196,374) | (1,522,706) | (75,675) | (63,082) | (530,577) | (2,676,027) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (17,330) | (45,373) | (1,951) | (2,360) | (155,641) | (369,903) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 1,177,856 | 1,946,610 | 211,532 | 132,304 | 700,756 | 2,077,300 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 1,224.6 | 13,771.6 | 5,875.4 | 2,205.8 | 179,319.0 | 2,690.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 961.80 | 141.35 | 36.00 | 59.98 | 3.91 | 772.12 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 170.82 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 961.80 | 141.35 | 31.11 | 59.98 | 4.27 | 4.52 | |
| Trading Currency | JPY | INR | EUR | USD | HKD | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.16 | 1.00 | 0.92 | 170.82 | |