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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 27.7x - 30.6x | 29.2x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 36.2x - 40.0x | 38.1x |
| Fair Value | Rp395.67 - Rp440.08 | Rp417.88 |
| Upside | -30.0% - -22.1% | -26.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| PT Avia Avian Tbk | AVIA | IDX:AVIA |
| PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk | INTP | IDX:INTP |
| PT PAM Mineral Tbk | NICL | IDX:NICL |
| PT Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk | CITA | IDX:CITA |
| South Basic Chemicals Joint Stock Company | CSV | HOSE:CSV |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk | IMPC | IDX:IMPC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| AVIA | INTP | NICL | CITA | CSV | IMPC | ||
| IDX:AVIA | IDX:INTP | IDX:NICL | IDX:CITA | HOSE:CSV | IDX:IMPC | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 7.2% | 3.4% | NM- | -6.9% | -0.6% | 31.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.3% | 7.0% | 89.5% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 37.6% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 4.8% | 23.8% | 2302.7% | 147.7% | 15.6% | 15.0% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 24.1% | 12.5% | 18.6% | 11.0% | 17.8% | 16.5% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 24.7% | 12.4% | 4.0% | 7.7% | 15.7% | 17.9% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.9% | 12.6% | 28.7% | 18.2% | 16.2% | 20.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 22.9% | 13.1% | 37.9% | 25.4% | 14.6% | 20.2% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.81x | 1.05x | 5.02x | 3.79x | 1.64x | 8.05x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.8x | 6.4x | 13.1x | 13.0x | 9.8x | 35.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 11.8x | 8.0x | 13.3x | 14.9x | 11.2x | 39.9x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 8.0x | 11.8x | 14.9x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 29.2x | 36.3x | 46.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 27.7x | 29.2x | 30.6x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 804,327 | 804,327 | 804,327 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 22,282,343 | 23,455,098 | 24,627,853 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,419,201) | (1,419,201) | (1,419,201) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 20,863,142 | 22,035,897 | 23,208,652 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 384.44 | 406.05 | 427.66 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 384.44 | 406.05 | 427.66 | 565.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -32.0% | -28.1% | -24.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | AVIA | INTP | NICL | CITA | CSV | IMPC | |
| Enterprise Value | 21,342,384 | 19,386,994 | 10,813,791 | 9,348,673 | 3,336,095 | 32,080,904 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 4,427,839 | 3,429,293 | 358,560 | 959,582 | 863,039 | 291,933 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 296,954 | 264,736 | 0 | 5,334,275 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (34,275) | (2,478,684) | (2,475) | 0 | (123,056) | (1,461,290) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (5,623) | 0 | (2,449) | 897 | (48,356) | (249,844) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 26,027,279 | 20,602,339 | 11,167,427 | 15,643,427 | 4,027,722 | 30,661,703 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 60,528.6 | 3,350.0 | 10,635.6 | 3,960.4 | 110.5 | 54,268.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 430.00 | 6,150.00 | 1,050.00 | 3,950.00 | 36,450.00 | 565.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 430.00 | 6,150.00 | 1,050.00 | 3,950.00 | 36,450.00 | 565.00 | |
| Trading Currency | IDR | IDR | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |