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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 44.7x - 49.4x | 47.1x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 55.3x - 61.2x | 58.3x |
| Fair Value | Rp732.89 - Rp812.79 | Rp772.84 |
| Upside | -48.7% - -43.2% | -46.0% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Vinacomin - Minerals Holding Corporation | KSV | HNX:KSV |
| PT Avia Avian Tbk | AVIA | IDX:AVIA |
| PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk | SMGR | IDX:SMGR |
| Petrovietnam Camau Fertilizer Joint Stock Company | DCM | HOSE:DCM |
| PT Cemindo Gemilang Tbk | CMNT | IDX:CMNT |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk | IMPC | IDX:IMPC |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| KSV | AVIA | SMGR | DCM | CMNT | IMPC | ||
| HNX:KSV | IDX:AVIA | IDX:SMGR | HOSE:DCM | IDX:CMNT | IDX:IMPC | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | NM- | 7.1% | -10.4% | -5.9% | -4.2% | 27.1% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 16.9% | 0.9% | -14.9% | -26.8% | -12.6% | 32.9% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 31.1% | 5.7% | -39.1% | 25.3% | -24.1% | 14.2% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 17.5% | 26.1% | 20.0% | 23.3% | 18.8% | 19.7% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 14.0% | 26.7% | 19.1% | 14.0% | 18.3% | 20.6% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 23.5% | 26.0% | 13.9% | 9.4% | 13.4% | 23.2% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.0% | 25.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 23.0% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 2.47x | 2.69x | 0.86x | 0.72x | 2.60x | 19.84x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.3x | 10.8x | 7.4x | 6.4x | 19.7x | 86.2x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 16.3x | 11.8x | 20.7x | 7.5x | 64.3x | 98.2x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.4x | 10.3x | 19.7x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 24.2x | 31.4x | 38.4x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 44.7x | 47.1x | 49.4x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 917,175 | 917,175 | 917,175 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 41,002,603 | 43,160,635 | 45,318,666 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (1,419,201) | (1,419,201) | (1,419,201) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 39,583,401 | 41,741,433 | 43,899,465 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | 54,268.5 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 729.40 | 769.17 | 808.93 | ||||
| FX Rate: IDR/IDR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 729.40 | 769.17 | 808.93 | 1,430.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -49.0% | -46.2% | -43.4% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | KSV | AVIA | SMGR | DCM | CMNT | IMPC | |
| Enterprise Value | 33,740,636 | 20,828,724 | 30,402,183 | 11,685,690 | 22,701,445 | 79,023,156 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 639,035 | 4,427,839 | 4,103,885 | 11,052,501 | 419,431 | 291,933 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 46,173 | 296,954 | 41,708 | 0 | 40,421 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (2,457,416) | (34,275) | (11,381,254) | (1,792,585) | (8,894,223) | (1,461,290) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (368,428) | (5,623) | (4,436,956) | (34,306) | (309,788) | (249,844) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 31,600,000 | 25,513,619 | 18,729,566 | 20,911,300 | 13,957,286 | 77,603,955 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 200.0 | 60,173.6 | 6,737.3 | 529.4 | 17,125.5 | 54,268.5 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 158,000.00 | 424.00 | 2,780.00 | 39,500.00 | 815.00 | 1,430.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 158,000.00 | 424.00 | 2,780.00 | 39,500.00 | 815.00 | 1,430.00 | |
| Trading Currency | VND | IDR | IDR | VND | IDR | IDR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |