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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.5x - 10.5x | 10.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 3.7x - 4.1x | 3.9x |
| Fair Value | ₨48.62 - ₨68 | ₨58.31 |
| Upside | -17.5% - 15.4% | -1.1% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| Nishat (Chunian) Limited | NCL | KASE:NCL |
| Interloop Limited | ILP | KASE:ILP |
| Nishat Mills Limited | NML | KASE:NML |
| Kohinoor Textile Mills Limited | KTML | KASE:KTML |
| Towellers Limited | TOWL | KASE:TOWL |
| Artistic Denim Mills Limited | ADMM | KASE:ADMM |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| NCL | ILP | NML | KTML | TOWL | ADMM | ||
| KASE:NCL | KASE:ILP | KASE:NML | KASE:KTML | KASE:TOWL | KASE:ADMM | ||
| Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | -0.7% | 40.1% | 9.4% | 55.1% | 1.5% | 20.9% | |
| 3Y CAGR | -7.1% | 11.4% | 13.7% | 30.9% | -6.3% | 27.5% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | -15.0% | -19.8% | -37.2% | 79.6% | -95.1% | -46.9% | |
| Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 15.7% | 19.5% | 11.9% | 23.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 9.4% | 20.3% | 11.4% | 20.9% | 21.9% | 17.4% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 11.5% | 14.4% | 9.5% | 36.6% | 4.6% | 12.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 10.0% | 14.4% | 6.5% | 36.6% | 0.7% | 8.7% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.61x | 1.11x | 0.33x | 0.79x | 0.23x | 0.88x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 6.0x | 7.7x | 5.0x | 2.2x | 35.1x | 10.1x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 7.6x | 10.7x | 7.9x | 2.5x | -16.2x | 26.1x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 2.2x | 6.0x | 35.1x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 4.7x | 9.3x | 18.0x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.5x | 10.0x | 10.5x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBITDA | 1,615 | 1,615 | 1,615 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 15,376 | 16,186 | 16,995 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (11,384) | (11,384) | (11,384) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 3,992 | 4,801 | 5,610 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 84.0 | 84.0 | 84.0 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 47.52 | 57.16 | 66.79 | ||||
| FX Rate: PKR/PKR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 47.52 | 57.16 | 66.79 | 58.93 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -19.4% | -3.0% | 13.3% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | NCL | ILP | NML | KTML | TOWL | ADMM | |
| Enterprise Value | 53,437 | 200,501 | 68,899 | 110,454 | 3,060 | 16,334 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 681 | 1,588 | 20,189 | 47,695 | 659 | 501 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 198 | 76,539 | 9,871 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (42,055) | (91,373) | (96,066) | (40,546) | (630) | (11,886) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (1,470) | (13,383) | (31,603) | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 12,064 | 109,445 | 56,179 | 95,871 | 3,088 | 4,950 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 240.1 | 1,401.7 | 351.6 | 1,346.5 | 17.0 | 84.0 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 50.24 | 78.08 | 159.78 | 71.20 | 181.66 | 58.93 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 50.24 | 78.08 | 159.78 | 71.20 | 181.66 | 58.93 | |
| Trading Currency | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | PKR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |