Treasury Market Predicts Fed Rate Hikes Are Done
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this week and Chairman Jerome Powell says more hikes are coming. The bond market disagrees.The 2-Year Treasury yield – widely monitored...
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Why the Debt Ceiling Matters: The Quintillion-Dollar Coin Problem
I was going to write a technical column today about how the sensitivity of bonds (and consequently, lots of other asset prices) to interest rates increase as interest rates decline, and...
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Odds Favor Lower Bond Yields in Months Ahead
Interest rates have risen rather quickly as the Federal Reserve attempts to fight inflation. Will the move be a case of too far, too fast?Today’s long-term monthly chart of the United States...
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Seeking Safety in Investment Grade Credit Amid Heightened Stock Market Volatility
Important inflation data hits Tuesday before the Fed finishes its final meeting of the year on Wednesday Corporate bond spreads should continue to be monitored, but we are not seeing...
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Are Interest Rates Creating Giant Reversal Pattern?
The past few years have seen extreme volatility in the bond market, equating to similar interest rate fluctuations.And it all started with the onset of the coronavirus. The initial panic...
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Are Investment Grade Bonds About to Rally?
Considering our national debt and the debts of companies and consumers, it’s evident that the bond market is critical to our economy.This is likely why the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade...
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Emerging Market Bonds Bounce: More Upside Likely
Weaker domestic inflation and lower dollar tailwinds for international fixed income Emerging market bonds have rallied sharply off their October low Continuation likely, but gains could be...
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Bearish Signals for Gold?
For someone who uses the bond markets as important indicators to the macro analysis, I am the furthest thing from an astute bond trader and am certainly not a bond investor. This probably...
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Estimates Indicate U.S. 10-Year Yield May Still Be Lofty at Current Levels
Last month I reported that the ‘fair value’ of the US 10-year Treasury yield appeared “lofty” relative to the average estimate for a combination model. In the weeks...
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Hedging Interest Rate Risk With Real And Nominal Treasury Yields
The recent rise in real yields for inflation-indexed Treasuries (TIPS) looks compelling for locking in relatively attractive payout rates, but the usual risks with bonds still applies. That...
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2-Year Treasury Rate May Be About To Explode Higher
2-year Treasury rates could be on their way to between 4% and 4.25% Fed monetary policy could be the main driver The 2-year appears to be breaking out from a technical standpoint Rates have...
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U.S. Bond Market: After Strong Rally In July, Uncertainty Lies Ahead
Treasury rates fell sharply as interest rate volatility dropped High-yield bonds rose big last month, but uncertainty lies ahead Traders monitoring important technical pattern on U.S....
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Fed Abandons Forward Guidance, Opening The Door To Speculation On Its Next Move
Avoiding another 75-basis-point hike in September looks tough Policymakers say focus should be on inflation, not recession Central banks, including the Fed, made mistakes that have led to...
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Surging Inflation Pushes U.S And European Central Banks, But Policies Diverge
Fed policymakers leaning to 75 basis-point hike this month FOMC voter Bullard calling for 4.0% policy rate by end-2022 ECB faces dilemma as Russian gas cuts dampen economic outlook Federal...
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MOVE Index: How Bond Market Volatility Can Help Investors Spot Stock Trends
The MOVE Index measures Treasury rate volatility through options pricing Daily bond market swings are the wildest since the Global Financial Crisis Yield volatility and credit spreads are...
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Government Bond Investors Torn Between Growth And Inflation
Investors in US Treasuries face a dilemma as they are caught between an economy that seems very strong but faces challenges from soaring inflation and Federal Reserve rate hikes to cut it...
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European Government Bond Market Roiled By Inflation, ECB Policy
Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe, who heads the so-called Eurogroup of EU finance ministers, felt obliged this week to reassure bond market investors that the eurozone does not face...
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Does The Recent, Historic Bond Bloodbath Signal A Market Bottom?
This article was written exclusively for Investing.comThe iShares U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF suffered its worst back-to-back daily drop since COVID Broad fixed income is down close to 30%,...
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Government Bond Yields Soar On Rate Hike And Recession Fears
Yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury soared more than 20 basis points on Monday, rising to 3.37% as bond investors bet the Federal Reserve would have to get more aggressive about hiking...
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Inflation Boosts European Government Bond Yields, As Prices Jump
Surging inflation and sinking bond markets have shifted to Europe this week, as initial CPI readings in the European Union point to accelerating price increases of more than 8% on the...
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Is The Era Of Negative Correlation Between Stocks And Bonds Over?
In normal times, stocks and bonds are negatively correlated—that is when stock prices tank, bond prices rise (and yields, which move inversely to prices, go down). The idea is that investors...
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Bond Investors Caught Between Inflation Worries And Recession Fears
Up, down, up, down—US Treasury yields are bouncing around as investors try to balance worries about inflation with concern about a global economic slowdown, or even a recession.Good news,...
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Bond Investors Confused As Inflation Fears Belie Central Bank Assurances
Bond investors are confused—and no wonder. Central bank officials keep telling them to ignore the evidence in front of their eyes.They are supposed to believe that inflation, which has been...
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Treasuries Breach 3% Yield Threshold As Investors Anticipate Fed Rate Hikes
Surging yields on US Treasuries crossed the 3% threshold amid a price rout on the government bonds (yields rise as prices fall) in Monday trading ahead of this week’s meeting of the Federal...
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Conflicting Worries On Rates And Growth Roil Government Bond Markets
U.S. Treasury investors are on a roller coaster as yields climbed on interest-rate fears and then plunged on growth worries.Remarks last week by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about...
