S&P 500 climbs as latest inflation data firms Fed December rate-cut expectations
Gold futures continue to trade within a tightening mean-reversion structure as December begins, with price oscillating around the VC PMI Daily pivot at 4244 and repeatedly testing the resistance cluster formed by SELL 1 Daily (4262) and SELL 2 Daily (4292). The chart displays a clear rejection from the 4299.6 high, aligning with the 78.6% retracement and reinforcing the exhaustion pattern developing into the first December cycle window.
The Weekly SELL 1 (4321) and SELL 2 (4387) levels remain overhead, creating a wide volatility band that reflects the broader macro uncertainty heading into year-end. On the downside, critical demand is identified at the BUY 1 Daily (4214) and BUY 2 Daily (4196) levels, which intersect with the 50% retracement at 4131 and Fibonacci confluence at the 38.2% level (4131–4090). This region forms the primary reversion zone where buyers are statistically expected to reassert control if tested.
Cycle analysis shows the 30-day cycle bottoming window from Dec 5–8, followed by a 60-day apex around Dec 18–20, and the 90-day cycle projecting a major turning point near Dec 28–31. This structure supports the expectation of increasing volatility through the third week of December, followed by a potential trend acceleration into the final days of the month. The tightening compression wedge visible on the 15-minute chart suggests that gold is preparing for a breakout from the contracting range between 4190 and 4290.
Above 4262, a momentum close targets the 4321 weekly zone, while sustained closes below 4204–4190 project a deeper reversion into the 4090–4016 demand cluster. With MACD registering repeated negative divergences and failing to confirm the recent highs, the market remains vulnerable to a downward cycle completion before another attempt toward the mid-4300s.
The projection chart through the end of December reflects a stabilizing upward drift consistent with seasonal tendencies and the higher-timeframe bullish structure. However, the December cycles warn of a potential whipsaw environment before a more directional move emerges. Traders should remain attentive to VC PMI levels as the statistical boundaries of risk and opportunity.
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Disclosure: Trading futures and derivatives involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult your financial professional before making trading decisions.