Market scorecard
On Friday, US stocks ended on a positive note, capping strong gains for the week and putting April's slowdown behind us. All three major indices have seen increases of at least 3.7% so far in the month of May and all-time highs are back in sight. Very satisfactory.
In company news, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) posted impressive sales figures, leading to a 5% share price increase. Elsewere, Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) rose by a staggering 99% after announcing a licensing agreement with French healthcare giant Sanofi (EPA:SASY) to jointly commercialise its Covid-19 vaccine. Its 5-year share chart still looks awful.
On Friday, the JSE All-share closed up 1.19%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq was unchanged.
One thing, from Paul
A great investor died last week. Jim Simons was a hedge fund manager, mathematician, and philanthropist. His quant fund, Renaissance Technologies, had a stellar track record. His net worth was estimated to be $31.4 billion.
His sayings were being shared widely over the weekend and I liked this one, about setting up an investment business and creating the core team: "Surround yourself with the smartest and best people you possibly can. Let them do their thing. Don't sit on top of them. If they're smarter than you, all the better."
This comment about investment also rings true: "Don't give up easily. Stick with it. Stick with it not forever, but really give it a chance to get where you're going."
Byron's beats
In Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL)'s latest earnings results, there was a lot of commentary about YouTube, which is thriving. YouTube Shorts is taking on Instagram Reels and has managed to double its monetisation levels year-on-year. YouTube also implemented a "pause ad" which pops up when a viewer pauses their clip. Management said that this new feature is already attracting premium pricing.
According to research house Nielsen, YouTube dominates streaming. Over the last year, more hours have been watched on YouTube than anywhere else. They have managed to target both social media with the Shorts and the direct streaming market. There are now over 100 million paying subscribers for Google Music and YouTube. Google is definitely not just a search engine.
Michael's musings
Last week, Neil Irwin from Axios had a good rant about high US interest rates: Yes, interest rates really are high right now. The central point of Irwin's argument is that depending on what time frame you use, current interest rates could either be seen as high or low. Rates at the moment look good compared to the 80s and 90s, but would be considered high compared to the period before the mid-70s.
Here's a really interesting table, Historical returns on stocks, bonds and bills: 1928-2023, that Irwin uses to back up his arguments. Note how well stocks do compared to every other asset class.
What really stood out for me was that once you factor in inflation, the real return from owning 3-month US treasury bills is usually negative. This highlights that sitting on cash for an extended period of time is a really bad idea.
The current real return on a US 3-month treasury bill is 1.89%, the first time it has been positive in 15 years. That tells you that either the market is expecting another massive spike in inflation or that interest rates have peaked, and that rates are most likely on the way down. I suspect it's the latter.
Bright's banter
According to ECDB, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) lead as the largest online fashion retailers in the United States, with apparel net sales totalling $12.3 billion and $8.9 billion, respectively in 2023.
Following these industry giants is a relative newcomer, Chinese company Shein, ranking third. Despite criticisms of its fast-fashion model and ultra-low prices, Shein specialises in trendy garments and constantly updates its offerings.
Using this approach, Shein, which only entered the US market around 2017, has surpassed established American retailers like Macy's (NYSE:M) and Nike (NYSE:NKE), which are now ranked fourth and fifth with fashion sales of $6.4 billion and $4.5 billion in 2023.
Infographic courtesy of: Statista
Signing off
Asian markets are mostly lower this morning. Benchmarks fell in India, Japan, and South Korea.
China announced that it was planning a $138 billion ultra-long bond issuance program starting on Friday which seems to be boosting sentiment. The Hong Kong exchange climbed to its highest level since August on the news.
US equity futures are in the green pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R18.40 to the US Dollar.
Have a productive week.