Market scorecard
US markets bounced around yesterday but ended in the green. The S&P 500 continued its August ascent, buoyed by dovish Federal Reserve minutes and a downward statistical tweak to the US payroll dataset. A rate cut in September now seems all but certain. In our view, it's about damned time.
Turning to company news, Target (NYSE:TGT) jumped 11.2% after breaking a streak of sales declines in the second quarter. Elsewhere in the retail sector, Macy's (NYSE:M) fell 13% following a more bearish outlook. Finally, JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) gave up 4.2% after Walmart (NYSE:WMT) announced it was selling its entire 10.4% holding in the Chinese e-commerce giant.
In summary, the JSE All-share closed up 0.29%, the S&P 500 rose 0.42%, and the Nasdaq was 0.57% higher. We're very close to record territory.
One thing, from Paul
Investment advice should be simple and concise. When recommending a share to a client, you need a clear thesis on why they will thrive in years to come. Focus on the company's core product and its sales prospects. Don't waffle or muddy the picture with doubts or other stray thoughts.
The same is true when dissuading clients from putting their hard-earned savings into some dodgy stock. If it's a shit one, it's a shit one. Just lead with the core idea, don't prevaricate.
Here's a brilliant example: James Cameron convinced Hollywood execs in the mid-1980s to make the sequel for the movie Alien by writing the word Aliens on a piece of paper with a $ at the end instead of the letter s, and sliding it across the table. Like this: Alien$.
Byron's beats
I am in two minds about global population growth. I get that we need more people on the planet to be consuming more goods so that economic growth can be sustained. But I am also mindful that people put huge pressure on natural resources.
The map below shows the fertility rate of India, the country with the biggest population in the world. The number in each state on the map represents the expected birthrate per woman. As you can see, it has come down a lot over the last 20 years.
In 2021 the average fertility rate for India was 2.03 which is slightly below replacement level. Except for a few states in the northeastern region, most of the areas are well below 2.
I have been to India and it seemed heavily overpopulated to me. I see this trend as a good outcome for the long-term sustainability of our planet. Economic growth in India should rather be lifted by fewer humans consuming more goods. They have enough people.
Michael's musings
Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) jumped 3% on Tuesday on news that Tirzepatide reduces the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes by 94% in obese or overweight adults. Insulet Corp, a maker of insulin delivery devices, dropped 6.9% on the same news. Tirzepatide is the active ingredient in Lilly's popular weight loss injection Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro.
We were a little puzzled at the favourable share price move on this news. These drugs are used to treat diabetes, so it isn't a surprise to hear that it helps prediabetic people keep their blood sugar below diabetic levels. Being prediabetic means having blood sugar levels that are higher than normal but not high enough to be classified as Type 2 diabetes.
I suppose prevention is better than cure. If people can get their blood sugar levels down early, they can avoid progressing to full-blown diabetes, with all of its serious health complications. As the list of noteworthy health benefits of GLP-1 drugs grows, so too does pressure on health insurers to cover their cost.
Bright's banter
Tencent-backed 'Black Myth: Wukong' made gaming history on its first day, becoming the second-most popular title ever on Steam. Drawing from Chinese mythology, the game features the legendary Sun Wukong and is breaking records left and right.
It was developed in China by Game Science, and inspired by the Monkey King story from 'Journey to the West' and has already outpaced 'Elden Ring' and 'Cyberpunk 2077' in concurrent player numbers.
Within hours of its launch, the game peaked at 1.44 million players. With its deep lore and massive hype, it shows no signs of slowing down.
I'm glad to see more blockbuster games come out of China after years of regulatory red tape. Good news for Tencent (HK:0700), and holders of Naspers/Prosus.
Signing off
Asian markets are mixed this morning, as usual. Equity benchmarks rose in Hong Kong, India, and South Korea, but fell in Japan, mainland China, and Taiwan.
In local company news, DRDGold reported a 14% increase in revenue, reaching R6.2 billion, thanks to a 20% rise in the average gold price. Elsewhere, Qatar Airways has acquired a 25% stake in South Africa's regional airline Airlink, further solidifying its foothold in the African aviation market.
US equity futures are slightly in the red pre-market. The Rand is trading at around R17.88 to the US Dollar.
The Federal Reserve's multiday Jackson Hole economic symposium begins today, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell set to deliver his remarks tomorrow.
Adios.