Market scorecard
US markets rose sharply on Friday, helping net off losses from earlier in the week. After some initial hesitancy, traders seemed to warm up to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole. For now, the options market is not pricing any more interest rate hikes for the rest of the year.
In company news, distressed pharmacy chain Rite Aid (NYSE:RAD) flopped 50% after saying it was preparing to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Hawaiian Electric (NYSE:HE) lost almost a fifth of its value after Maui County sued the utility for gross negligence that may have started the fires on the island. The biggest gainer in the S&P 500 was toy-maker Hasbro (NASDAQ:HAS), up 5.7% in anticipation of strong sales of Monopoly sets and Play-Doh tubs.
In summary, the JSE All-share closed down 0.63%, the S&P 500 rose 0.67%, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.97% higher. Also, the Boks hammered the All Blacks, which felt good.
One thing, from Paul
I don't usually comment on macro-economic developments, because it's all too tedious. If my eyes glaze over after reading comments about interest rates, inflation, retail sales, credit extension, growth rates and more, I imagine that yours do too.
I'm making an exception today because I really liked this comment from Jerome Powell last week. He reiterated the US central bank's commitment to lowering inflation, but said they would proceed cautiously.
He noted that forecasts are just forecasts and that the data that comes in is not always clear, and the trends are not consistent. Life is messy and policy is hard. "We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies". That's brilliant.
Byron's beats
With so much going on during 2022, everyone had an opinion about what would happen in 2023. The recession will start then, interest rates will go here, the market will close at this level. Let's be honest, most of the predictions from last year have been dead wrong.
We often get asked for our views on short term trends. Clients also ask us where our models tell us certain stocks should be trading. We try to avoid committing ourselves, because forecasts are mostly wrong, and they can also be very misleading, forcing you into bad decisions.
It's very important for investors to admit that they don't know what will happen in the future. A fairly safe assumption is that humanity will move forward. From there, pick good companies that are part of that progress. Trust the process and ignore the noise.
Michael's musings
As my colleagues have argued above, making forecasts is extremely difficult. You need to build in all sorts of assumptions, and if one of them is wrong, then your prediction is off. Last year the general view was that interest rates would continue rising, leading to a global recession and a drop in equity prices in 2023. That was a very reasonable forecast, but with hindsight it was incorrect.
Barry Ritholtz has a look at the forecasts made about BlackBerry when it was at the height of its dominance, Forget the iPhone: BlackBerry is still the one to beat. That headline has aged very badly. When it was written, BlackBerry had 44% of the smartphone market. It was hard to see how anyone could surpass them.
At Vestact, we don't make short term forecasts; they are too hard. Instead we pick the best companies in our favourite sectors, and then keep very close tabs on the sector and the company. We hold through the cycles. If things change fundamentally for the worse we might decide to move on. In the cellphone wars, Vestact originally backed Nokia (HE:NOKIA). When it was clear that their dominance was over, we switched clients into Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
Bright's banter
Rolex is acquiring Bucherer, a watch retailer with over a century of history and more than 100 stores worldwide. This is a significant shift for Rolex, as it usually lets authorized retailers sell its watches. In fact, Rolex only directly owns and runs one store in Geneva. Bucherer will keep its name and continue to operate independently.
The luxury watch market, especially for pre-owned Rolexes, got a boost during the pandemic. Despite a slight price dip from the 2022 highs, they're still pricier than in 2019. Rolex itself doesn't sell preowned watches, but Bucherer does.
Signing off
Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning. Chinese traders are cheering the lowering of stamp duties for people and institutions buying shares, and indices in Shanghai are enjoying their biggest gain in over a month. Benchmarks also rose in Hong Kong, Japan and South Korea.
US equity futures are slightly higher in early trade. The Rand is trading at around R18.60 to the US Dollar.
Have a good week, and keep focused. Good things are happening.