U.S. stocks and bonds fall as PPI boosts Fed rate hike bets, WTI crude tops $100
Market Scorecard
US stocks extended their move lower yesterday, as the negative mood on Wall Street continues. The S&P 500 closed at its lowest level since 2020, and the VIX (a measure of market volatility) spiked to a level it hasn't closed at since June. We march onward.
In corporate news, Walmart is making its move into the metaverse with two immersive experiences on Roblox. This is not their usual target market, but the retailer will start offerings of music, fashion and toys. Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ:WYNN) was up 12% on news that Macao plans to reopen its casinos to visitors from mainland China by the end of the year. Elsewhere, Grab announced that it expects slowing revenue growth of 45% to 55% in 2023 as the Southeast Asian internet giant adjusts to a market downturn.
At the closing bell, the JSE All-share was up 0.33%, the S&P 500 lost 1.03%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.6% after flitting between gains and losses all day.
One Thing, From Paul
What's happening with earnings of big companies for the second half of 2022? Analysts have reduced their guidance slightly, warning that a general slowdown might cause profit margins to contract. No one seems sure what to expect. We will soon get reports for the quarter ending September.
Nike (NYSE:NKE) is an unusual one, reporting earnings after the close this Thursday, for the three month period ending August. Expectations are low, thanks to prior warnings from big companies like FedEx (NYSE:FDX), sloppy late August updates from retailers like Target (NYSE:TGT) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) and the strong US Dollar that probably hammered Nike's overseas sales and profits. Added to that are worries about inventory levels and weak demand out of China.
Nike's stock has behaved badly this year, it's off 41.5% since January 1st. That's not good, at all. Morgan Stanley's long-time analyst Kimberly Greenberger, who covers Nike said in a note:
"While the long-term opportunity remains compelling, macroeconomic deterioration and limited visibility makes current discounted valuation fair, in our view. Until visibility improves, we see more attractive opportunities elsewhere in our coverage."
Well, let's see. Eliud Kipchoge ran the Berlin Marathon in his bright orange Nike Air Zoom Alphafly NEXT% 2 Men's road racing shoes (pictured below). He set a new world record. The shoes cost R5 899.95 per pair. Nike's sales and margins are good. We are great supporters of the company, and lifetime investors.
Byron's Beats
Yesterday two great brands announced a 6-year deal. Nike will become the official kit sponsor of the Springboks. The contract will start next year, just in time for the Rugby World Cup when the Bokke attempt to defend their title.
Nike sponsored the Springboks from 1996 to 2003 before Canterbury and Asics each took a turn. Nike will supply all playing kit and off field apparel to the Boks, Springbok Women, all the sevens teams and the Junior Boks.
Naturally, as a Nike shareholder and a big Bok fan I am very excited to buy my World Cup Nike jersey next year.
Michael's Musings
It isn't Friday, but here's a simple piece of advice - "being cheap is expensive". I'm busy renovating a house and have experienced this a few times through the process. Picking the cheaper contractor in most cases has resulted in inferior work quality, leading to extra stress, time wasting and eventually extra costs to rectify problems.
The same rule applies to investing. Normally, the best companies trade at a premium. Probably the best example was African Bank vs Capitec (JO:CPIJ). Vestact, unfortunately, backed African Bank because we felt that Capitec was too expensive, and that we had missed our opportunity to buy into the bank. Since then Capitec is up almost tenfold, and African Bank died in a fiery inferno.
Bright's Banter
In May 2021 hackers initiated a cyberattack against Colonial Pipeline, the company with the US's largest pipeline network. The firm had to halt operations for six days, and had to pay a ransom of 75 Bitcoins, which was worth $4.4 million at the time. A month later US Department of Justice announced it had reclaimed almost all the Bitcoin, but how did they do it?
Enter Chainalysis, an $8.6 billion startup that helps governments trace crypto transactions and catch criminals. The company was founded in 2014 by Michael Gronager (the co-founder of crypto exchange Kraken) and Jonathan Levin with the idea of becoming the leading source of intelligence on digital assets.
This company gathers an enormous amount of data from blockchain markets, exchanges and crypto clients. It uses machine learning, statistical analysis, and other techniques to process and follow where all the crypto went.
According to Bloomberg, Chainalysis has become a key partner for the US and other governments investigating crypto-related crimes. Traditionally criminals favoured cryptocurrencies, in part, because they're supposedly hard to trace, but this company has proved that is not always the case.
I hate all crimes, including cyber-extortion.
Signing Off
Asian markets are firming today. Shares edged higher in Japan and mainland China, while Hong Kong dipped below par at the close, and South Korea fell. Bonds remained under pressure in Australia and Japan. For reference purposes, the US benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is near 3.9%, a level last seen in 2010.
On the economic front, today we will see the release of China's industrial profits and US new home sales data. US equity futures contracts rose in early trade, maybe we will finally see some green in portfolios. The Rand is trading at R17.95 to the greenback.
Have a good day, make the best of it.
